The final round of the Six Nations takes place on Saturday and first up Wales clash with Italy in Cardiff and the home side are battling to avoid finishing with the wooden spoon
Wales v Italy, Saturday 16th March, Cardiff, KO 16:15 (South African time)
Referee: Mathieu Raynal (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Chris Busby (IRFU), Morné Ferreira (SARU)
TMO: Joy Neville (IRFU)
Weather Forecast: Cardiff (only applicable if the roof is closed)
Wales
Wales come into the final round of matches having lost all 4 of their games so far. They are bottom of the standings with just 3 log points, 4 shy of their opponents here and Wales have a points difference of -48 compared to Italy's -37. Points difference could still play a part whilst a bonus point win with Italy failing to pick up any log points would guarantee Wales avoid a wooden spoon.
In Round 4 Wales (+6.5 points on the main handicap line) went down 54-24 at home to France. After the lead changed hands several times, Wales holding a narrow advantage just after the break but France put the hammer down to run away it.
Wales also finished well beaten by Ireland in Dublin in Round 3, going down 31-7 whilst in Round 2 they led England 14-5 at half time at Twickenham but they failed to score a point in the second half and after going down (16-14) to a late penalty they came away with just a losing bonus point. In their opening round clash at home to Scotland the Welsh trailed 20-0 at half time. That deficit became 27-0 and then Wales conjured up an amazing fightback which came up agonizingly short as they lost the game 27-26. Their 4 tries saw them earn 2 bonus points.
In the 6 Nations last year Wales won just 1 game (against Italy), 29-17 in Rome whilst when these teams met in Cardiff in 2022 Italy edged it 22-21.
Fixtures & Results: R1 Scotland (h) lost 27-26, R2 England (a) lost 16-14, R3 Ireland (a) lost 31-7, R4 France (h) lost 45-24, R5 Italy (h)
Italy
Italy are no strangers to finishing with the wooden spoon but they come into the final round second bottom with 7 log points. Looking up both France and Scotland have 11 points and are still in range if the Italian's can conjure up a bonus point win.
Round 4 saw Italy edge out Scotland 31-29, a first home win in this competition for 11 years. They were 22-10 down at one stage in the first half but fought back and held on tenaciously in the final quarter of a game which they started as 11.5 point underdogs on the bookmakers handicap.
Although Italy were 26.5 point underdogs for their trip to Lille to take on France in Round 3 they drew game the game 13-13 and could have snared a rare victory had a penalty at the death not hit the post. Italy went down 36-0 to Ireland in Dublin in Round 2 and in Round 1 at home to England they threatened a surprise when leading 17-14 at half time but England hit back to edge it 27-24.
Fixtures & Results: R1 England (h) lost 27-24, R2 Ireland (a) lost 36-0, R3 France (a) drew 13-13, R4 Scotland (h) won 31-29, R5 Wales (a)
Team News
Wales: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 George North, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow. 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Dafydd Jenkins (captain), 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Evan Lloyd, 17 Kemsley Mathias, 18 Harri O’Connor, 19 Will Rowlands, 20 Mackenzie Martin, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Mason Grady
Italy: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosuè Zilocchi, 19 Andrea Zambonin, 20 Ross Vintcent, 21 Manuel Zuliani, 22 Martin Page-Relo, 23 Leonardo Marin
Head to Head (6 Nations Only)
2023 6N Rome Italy 17-29 Wales (Tries 2-4 )
2022 6N Cardiff Wales 21-22 Italy (Tries 3-1)
2021 6N Rome Italy 7-48 Wales (Tries 1-7)
2020 6N Cardiff Wales 42–0 Italy (Tries 5-0)
2019 6N Rome Italy 15-26 Wales (Tries 2-2)
2018 6N Cardiff Wales 38–14 Italy (Tries 5-2)
2017 6N Rome Italy 7-33 Wales (Tries 1-3)
2016 6N Cardiff Wales 67–14 Italy (Tries 9-2)
The Betting
Wales -8.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Italy +8.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Note, odds quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
There has been some support for Italy on the handicap and the +9.5 available earlier in the week is now +7.5.
The Oracle made a return to last night’s THE HANDICAP, our Rugby Betting Show and he was firmly in the Italian camp and his advice was to forget about the handicap and back them for the win. My feeling is that we are going to be in for a close game here and I am going to bet that we get a winning margin for either side of no more than 6 points.
I have also been looking at the Total Points line which, depending on where you shop sits at 47.5 up to 49.5. I am tempted by overs here, but just a bit concerned that this one could turn into a bit of an arm wrestle and will reflect a bit more on this before posting any bets in our Forum thread.
BET: 2 UNITS, Tribet any other result at 2/1 at WSB
Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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