South Africa's Autumn Nations international rugby series concludes in Cardiff on Saturday when they take on a Wales side who have made history for all the wrong reasons
Wales v South Africa, Saturday 23rd November, Cardiff, KO 19:40 (South African time)
Referee: Karl Dickson (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Christophe Ridley (RFU), Damian Schneider (UAR)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)
Weather Forecast – Cardiff (only applicable if roof is open)
Wales:
Wales took on Australia in Cardiff last week, they were 6.5 point underdogs on the main handicap line and they crashed and burned 52-20 as the Wallabies ran in 8 tries to 2. The record 11th straight defeat could mean this is Gatland's last game in charge with his position under review after a disastrous year.
The end of year program had begun with a 24-19 home defeat to Fiji, a game they they led 14-3 at one stage whilst in Australia in July they lost to the Wallabies twice, 25-16 in the first test and 36-28 in the second. Wales also took on South Africa in a one off test at Twickenham in he middle of this year and an understrength side finished well beaten 41-13.
In the Six Nations early in 2024 Wales finished bottom of the log. They lost all of their matches; at home to Scotland (27-26), to England at Twickenham (16-14), to Ireland in Dublin (31-7), at home to France (45-24) and finally at home to Italy (24-21).
South Africa:
The bookmakers main handicap line for last week's clash between England and the Boks at Twickenham settled at around 7.5 points and that was fairly accurate as South Africa came out on top 29-20 (Half time 17-19). Cheslin Kolbe scored 2 of the Springboks 4 tries and although Gerhard Steenekamp picked up a late yellow England couldn't find a way back.
The Boks first action since the Rugby Championship came at Murrayfield a week earlier and they saw off Scotland 32-15 (half time 19-9). They started as favourites at around 8.5 points on the main handicap line and scored 4 unanswered tries including a brace for Mapimpi in the first half.
South Africa also landed the Rugby Championship title this year. They started with back to back wins over the Wallabies in Australia ( 30-12 and 33-7) and then beat the All Blacks in two close games on home turf, coming from behind on both occasions to win 18-12 in Cape Town and 31-27 in Johannesburg. Their only defeat came in Argentina where they went down 29-28 to Los Pumas but a round later they beat the same opposition 48-7 in South Africa to clinch the title.
In July this year South Africa shared their 2 match home series against Ireland, winning the first test 27-20 but losing the second 25-24. They also ran out winners at home to Portugal 64-21.
Team News
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 James Botham, 5 Christ Tshiunza, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake, 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Eddie James, 23 Josh Hathaway
South Africa (Updated): 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Thomas du Toit.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Handre Pollard
Recent Head to Head
The teams met in a one off test at Twickenham in June this year and South Africa won it 41-13.
In a RWC warm up match in Cardiff in August last year South Africa dished out a 52-16 hiding.
South Africa were 2-1 winners in their home series against Wales in July 2022. They edged the first test 32-29, lost the second with a much changed side 13-12 and won the decider 30-14.
In Cardiff in November 2021 South Africa won 23-18
The Betting
Update 22 November 18h15
Wales +27.5 points at 9/10
South Africa -27.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Posted 22 November 14h00
The handicap -17.5 Boks and moved to -19.5 before jumping to -25.5 after the teams were selected.
The points line is 56.5 and I am really battling to settle on a bet. The Boks should win this comfortably but I really dislike these mid 20's handicaps.
I am going to ponder this further before placing a bet.
Posted 22 November 18h15
The handicap has moved out to -27.5 South Africa and it seems even direct relatives of the Welsh players are throwing in the towel and backing the Boks.
The points line is 58.5 and I just have a feeling the Welsh can make this a scrappy game. This is probably going to be agony to watch but I am backing the unders.
I also noted Chiefie’s post in the forum where he highlighted Thomas Du Toit as a prolific tryscorer in the Premiership. The best I could find was 2/1 for him to score at anytime so I am going to get greedy with a nibble on him for First SA try scorer and to score 2 or more tries (he will probably only get 50 minutes to do this)
BET: 4 units under 58.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
BET: 0.5 unit Thomas Du Toit SA 1st try scorer 20/1 at WSB
BET: 0.5 unit Thomas Du Toit to score 2 or more tries at 14/1 at Pokerbet
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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