With top spot in Rugby World Cup Pool D already assured England are favourites to maintain their 100% record when they take on Samoa in Lille on Saturday
England v Samoa, Saturday 7th October, Lille, KO 17:45 (South African time)
Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)
Assistant Referees: Nika Amashukeli (GRU), Chris Busby (IRFU)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (IRFU)
Weather Forecast – Lille
England:
England sat our Round 4 but results from other pool matches last week went in their favour and they will go through to the quarter finals as group winners. England have won all 3 of their matches and have 14 points, 5 more than Argentina and Japan and given they have beaten both of those sides they cannot be overhauled.
In their most recent outing England demolished Chile 71-0 with Henry Arundell scoring 5 of their 11 tries. Earlier England came through their clash with Japan with a 35-12 victory and George Ford was responsible for all of England's points (6 penalties and 3 drop goals) in their opening round 27-10 victory over Argentina.
England will face the runner up of Pool C in the quarter finals which at the moment looks likely to be Fiji. They are trading at around 11.5/1 to win the tournament with BoyleSports and they are 7/20 to reach the semi finals and 3.35/1 to reach the final.
Click here to open an account at BoyleSports
Samoa:
Samoa went into last week's crucial clash with Japan as 6.5 point favourites but they lost 28-22 and their chances of reaching the knockout rounds pretty much went up in smoke. To make it through Samoa would need Japan and Argentina to draw their match on Sunday without bonus points and they would have to pick up a 5 pointer here and win by 29 points or more.
Samoa trailed Japan 17-8 at half time and then had Ben Lam red carded, they stuck to their task but there was to be no way back. In earlier matches Samoa were given around 13.5 points start on the handicap for their clash with Argentina, a game they lost 19-10. Samoa's first action came against Chile and they won the game 43-10.
Team News
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Joe Marchant, 13 Manu Tuilagi, 12 Owen Farrell (c), 11 Jonny May, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Courtney Lawes, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Jamie George, 1 Ellis Genge
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 George Martin, 20 Billy Vunipola, 21 Danny Care, 22 Marcus Smith, 23 Ollie Lawrence
Samoa: 15 Duncan Paia’aua, 14 Nigel Ah-Wong, 13 Tumua Manu, 12 Danny Toala, 11 Neria Fomai, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Jonathan Taumateine, 8 Steven Luatua, 7 Fritz Lee, 6 Theo McFarland, 5 Brian Alainu’u’ese, 4 Sam Slade, 3 Michael Alaalatoa (c), 2 Sama Malolo, 1 Jordan Lay
Replacements: 16 Seilala Lam, 17 James Lay, 18 Paul Alo-Emile, 19 Sootala Fa’aso’o, 20 Alamanda Motuga, 21 Melani Matavao, 22 Christian Leali’ifano, 23 Miracle Faiilagi
The Betting
England -21.5 points at 9/10
Samoa +21.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
The handicap has shifted from an opening call of -18.5 to -24.5 which is still not quite at the -24.5 I was projecting.
This is a game where I am battling to find anything I really like. England are already assured of top spot and Samoa have been disappointing.
Samoa do in theory have something to play for as with a win they could finish 3rd qualifying for the 2027 RWC but I can’t see it.
Total points is 52.5 and as The Understaker said on yesterdays THE HANDICAP our live betting show that looks low and I agree there is a chance this one really opens up.
An interest in overs and a nibble on English 9 Alex Mitchell being the 1st try scorer at 12/1,
Stay close to our forum thread where I will post any additional bets and other punters share their plays
BET: 4 units over 52.5 points at 1/1 at Betxchange (Using the Boost , 5k max, can’t use in multiples)
BET: 0.5 unit Alex Mitchell 1st try at 12/1 at WSB
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Join @BrentGraham and the panel live for “The Handicap”. Subscribe to the channel and set a reminder for the next show here.
More tips, news and views are available on the weekly rugby thread on our discussion forum. If you are new to our community you can open an account here.
Subscribe to our free weekly betting mailer which will include our best and value bets below.
