Wellington is the venue for the second of three international rugby test matches between New Zealand and France on Saturday, the All Blacks are 1-0 up in the series but the opening contest was much closer than the betting had suggested.
New Zealand v France, Saturday 12th July, Wellington, KO 09:05 (South African time)
Referee: Christophe Ridley (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Nic Berry (RA), Takehito Namekawa (JRFU)
TMO: Brett Cronan (RA)
Weather Forecast – Wellington
New Zealand:
The first test was staged in Dunedin last weekend and the All Blacks were supported into -21.5 on the bookmakers main handicap line. New Zealand eventually won the game 31-27 but the were hanging on towards the end against a French side that was way understrength. The All Blacks scored 4 tries (to 3 from Les Bleus) including a brace for Will Jordan but skipper Scott Barrett pulled up with a calf injury and has been ruled out for the remainder of the series. This is a 3 match series with the final test taking place in Hamilton.
These teams met in Paris last year in the November internationals and the All Blacks were 17-10 in front at half time but finished beaten 30-29. That was the only defeat on the All Blacks end of year tour which started with wins in Japan (64-19), England (24-22) and Ireland (23-13). After the defeat in Paris New Zealand then saw off Italy (29-11).
New Zealand's 2024 Rugby Championship campaign comprised of 3 wins and 3 defeats and they came in as distant runners up to the Springboks. They finished with back to back wins over Australia (31-28) in Sydney and finally (33-13) in Wellington and retained the Bledisloe Cup. Back to back defeats to the Boks in South Africa in Rounds 3 and 4 (27-17 and 31-27) had pretty much ended their title hopes. Their first two matches came at home to Argentina and they lost 38-30 in Round 1 and then bounced back and in some style, running out 42-10 winners a week later.
In The July internationals of 2024 New Zealand won both tests at home to England (16-15 and 24-17)
France:
Guillard, Villiere, Woki scored the French tries in 31-27 defeat in Dunedin last week. They were within a point of the All Blacks inside the last 10 minutes before conceding a penalty and although they threatened thereafter there was to be no way back.
Les Bleus landed the 6 Nations title earlier this year, winning 4 and losing 1 of their matches to finish 1 point clear of England and 2 better off than Ireland. They routed Wales (43-0) in a home fixture before losing out to England (26-25) at Twickenham. That defeat was followed by wide margin wins in Italy (73-24), in Ireland (42-27) and finally at home to Scotland (35-16).
Aside from edging out the All Blacks in November last year other results in that series saw France beat Japan (52-12) and Argentina (37-23). In July 2024 France shared a 2 match series with Los Pumas in Argentina, winning the first match 28-18 and losing the second 33-25.
Recent Head to Head
Prior to last week's first test France had won each of the previous 3 head to heads, 30-29 in Paris in November 2024, in the opening match of RWC23 in Paris France came out on top 27-13 and also in Paris in November 2021 France won 40-25.
Team News
New Zealand:* 15 Will Jordan, 14 Rieko Ioane Emoni Narawa, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Christian Lio-Willie, 7 Ardie Savea (captain), 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Samipeni Finau, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 23 Damian McKenzie
*Updated after Clarke injury
France: 15 Leo Barre, 14 Theo Attissogbe, 13 Nicolas Depoortere, 12 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 11 Emilien Gailleton, 10 Joris Segonds, 9 Nolann Le Garrec, 8 Esteban Abadie, 7 Jacobus Van Tonder, 6 Pierre Bochaton, 5 Matthias Halagahu, 4 Joshua Brennan, 3 Georges-Henri Colombe, 2 Gaetan Barlot (captain), 1 Baptiste Erdocio.
Replacements: 16 Pierre Bourgarit, 17 Paul Mallez, 18 Regis Montagne, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Cameron Woki, 21 Bastien Vergnes-Taillefer, 22 Thibault Daubagna, 23 Antoine Hastoy
The Betting
Update 11 July 20h54
New Zealand -17.5 points at 9/10
France +17.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Posted 11 July 20h58
This game cost me a fortune last week where I was on the New Zealand overs. They looked well on track early in the 2nd half but failed to kick on and I have been licking my wounds all week.
I have no feel on the handicap and the points line is 56.5 with some fairly strong wind forecast.
At the end of the day the All Blacks should have scored far more than they did last week and I am looking to make amends with the same bet.
The AB's are traditionally slow startes and Razor has opted for continuity which I hope pays off.
Bet: 5 units New Zealand over 36.5 points at 17/20 at Hollywoodbets
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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