In this blog Brent Graham has a go at projecting the week 10 handicaps and he also looks at the latest outright betting, the weather and towards the end of the week a bet in each match.
WESTERN FORCE v HURRICANES
Posted 19 April 09h45
I handicapped this game +5.5 Force and the early line I saw was +2.5 which has shifted to +4.5.
The points line is 60.5 and as I can't find too much in the handicap lines this is where I am looking.
The Force in particular have played in some high soring matches this season but it is more on gut feel that I am leaning overs.
Conditions look mild by Perth standards and it should be great for attacking rugby.
BET: 4 units over 60.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
CHIEFS v HIGHLANDERS
Posted 18 April 22h40
I handicapped this game -13.5 Chiefs and it opened -14.5 and has shifted slightly to -15.5.
The cap looks well set and I will take a small interest in the Chiefs winning by 11-20 points inclusive.
The points line is 55.5 and with some humidity expected and showers forecast earlier in the day the line also looks well set.
BET: 2 units Alternative Winning Margin, Chiefs by 11-20 at 5/2 at Betxchange
A reminder my weekly betting newsletter goes out on Saturday morning SA time - click here to get my weekly mail
MOANA PASIFIKA v BRUMBIES
Posted 18 April 20h49
This handicap is currently Moana +7.5 which is very much where I set it.
The points line is 64.5 and although Moana games have generally been high scoring I am looking at the unders.
There is some rain about early in the day and conditions could be a bit humid.
I am hoping the game gets scrappy at some point.
BET: 3 units under 64.5 points at 0.97/1 at Betxchange
DRUA v WARATAHS
Posted 18 April 08h39
I was well out with this handicap and expected the Waratahs to start favourite but the line is currently -5.5 or -6.5 Drua depending on your bookie.
The points line is 56.5 and with conditions looking ok (some showers early in day, humidity in 70's) I think that is well set.
The Drua are not easy to beat at home but to me the Waratahs have turned a corner and with a bye next week I fancy them to give 100% and get the win.
BET: 2 units Waratahs win at 2/1 at Betxchange
BACK IN TOWN
Posted 18 April 20h28
After a long day at the wheel (including a flat tyre) I am back and will get some of tomorrows bets up in the next couple of hours
Just watched the highlights of Crusaders v Blues and a nice start with the 1-7 winning margin arriving.
CRUSADERS v BLUES
Posted 17 April 22h11
What a great game to kick off the weekend.
There has been very little movement in the handicap and the Saders are steady at -5.5.
The points line is 53.5 and some rain is expected.
I will be driving back to Durban during this game so am not getting too involved.
I am leaning Blues on the handicap but ultimately I expect this one to go down to the wire.
BET: 2 units either team by 7 or less at 15/10 at Betxchange
Weather Links
Posted 17th April 11:20
Friday 18th April
Crusaders v Blues, 09h05, Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch (Grass), Light rain changing to overcast by nighttime
Saturday 19th April
Fijian Drua v Waratahs, 04h05 Churchill Park, Fiji, Fiji ( Grass), outside chance of showers, warm and humidity around 80%
Moana Pasifika v Brumbies, 06h35, North Harbour Stadium, Auckland, (Grass), Some rain in morning, clearing prior to the match.
Chiefs v Highlanders, 09h05, FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton, (Hybrid), Mild, showers earlier in the day
Force v Hurricanes, 11h35 HBF Park, Perth, (Grass), Cool and clear
SRP LATEST HANDICAPS AND POINTS LINES
Posted 15 April 22h37
A quieter week as far as updates go as I am on holiday in Durban this week. Below the latest handicaps with originals in brackets. There has been very little change.
Crusaders (-5.5) v Blues, Points 53.5
Drua (-4.5) v Waratahs, Points 56.5
Moana (+5.5) +4.5 v Brumbies, Points 63.5
Chiefs (-14.5) v Highlanders, Points 56.5
Force (+2.5) v Hurricanes, Points 60.5
BOOKIES ARE UP WITH HANDICAPS
Posted 14th April 08h39
Here are our the bookies early handicaps compare to mine (Betxchange caps in brackets)
Crusaders -6.5 (-5.5) v Blues
Drua +7.5 (-4.5) v Waratahs - a massive difference here, I just can't have the Drua on current form but I imagine Waratahs may rest players
Moana +8.5 (+5.5) v Brumbies
Chiefs -13.5 (-14.5) v Highlanders
Force +5.5 (+2.5) v Hurricanes
No early move for me at this stage
SRP WEEK 10 HANDICAP PROJECTIONS
Posted 13 April 19h33
As usual I like to handicap the games ahead of the bookies and a big difference may after a review signal an early betting strike.
Crusaders -6.5 v Blues
Drua +7.5 v Waratahs - game played in Fiji
Moana +8.5 v Brumbies - game played in Pukekohe, New Zealand home of the Counties Manukau
Chiefs -13.5 v Highlanders
Force +5.5 v Hurricanes
SRP WEEK 9 REVIEW
Below are the week 9 results with comments on the bet suggested in the blog
Hurricanes 24 Crusaders 31, Hurricanes started -2.5, blog pick was under 57.5 which scraped home
Waratahs 21 Chiefs 14, Handicap Waratahs +12.5, I thought I was clever grabbing the -10.5 Chiefs but it was a trap
Blues 36 Moana Pasifika 17, Handicap Blues -13.5, I took the -13.5 which arived
Highlanders 43 Fijian Drua 20, Handicap Highlanders -9.5, the blog pick was the -8.5 Highlanders which came home smoking a cigar
Reds 26 Brumbies 39, Handicap Reds -3.5, I got this one badly wrong making the Reds -3.5 one of my best bets
Super Rugby 2025 – Outright Winner Odds
Chiefs 2.45
Crusaders 3.75
Blues 5.50
Brumbies 7.50
Reds 10.0
Hurricanes 17.00
Waratahs 21.00
Western Force 41.00
Moana Pasifika 67.00
Highlanders 67.00
Fijian Drua 201.00
SUPER RUGBY STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 9
The Crusaders top the log with 28 points ahead of the Chiefs on 26. The Brumbies and Reds are each on 23 points. The Hurricanes and the Blues sit 8th and 9th both on 16 points
Play well guys
