In this blog Brent Graham has a go at projecting the week 12 handicaps and he also looks at the latest outright betting, the log, the forecast weather and towards the end of the week a bet in each match.
HIGHLANDERS v MOANA PASIFIKA
Posted 04 May 00h22
I handiapped this game Highlanders -7.5 and so in theory should be eyeing the -3.5 and -4.5 on offer.
Instead I find myself leaning to Pasifika who can move into the playoff spots with a win here. They have already taken some big scalps this season and I think they can get another.
The points line is 60.5 which looks about right.
It hasn't been the best of Super Rugby weekends for me with the Reds letting me down but the Brumbies overs has me in good spirits and I am hoping to end strong with a board bet.
BET: 2 units Pasifika win at 29/20 at WSB
BRUMBIES v WARATAHS
Posted 02 May 22h52
The Brumbies are -9.5 favourites to get back to winning ways against the Waratahs after the Tahs broke a 13 match losing streak when they beat the Brumbies 28-23 in Sydney bak in March.
Given I handicapped this game Brumbies -9.5 I am not seeing alot of value in the handicap and will focus elsewhere.
The points line is 57.5 and in what looks like good conditions I am leaning towards the overs.
My preference though is for Brumbies points which is set at 33.5.
They have beaten this line in 3 of their last 4 home games only missing out with 29 points against the Hurricanes last time out. By the same token the Waratahs have conceded more than 33 points in 3 of their last 4 away matches.
The Brumbies would also have beaten this line in 5 of the last 6 against the Waratahs in Canberra.
BET: 5 units Brumbies over 33.5 at 19/20 at Hollywoodbets
HURRICANES v CHIEFS
Posted 02 May 16h31
This handicap has seen some movement after opening +5.5 Canes and then briefly touching +7.5 only to come into the current line of +3.5 following team news.
I am leaning Hurricanes here but a bet I always enjoy in these tightly matched New Zealand derbies is any team to win by 7 points or less (incl. the draw) - it is priced at just shy of 15/10.
The total points line is 55.5 and conditions look likely to be cool but clear with humidity in the 70's. No bet there at this stage.
BET: 2 units either team by 7 or less (incl. draw) at 1.48/1 at Betxchange
DRUA v REDS
Posted 02 May 14h02
There were times in the Blues v Force 1st half where I was cursing myself for not closing out the bet but as often in Super Rugby we had a game of 2 halves and in the end the over 56.5 arrived.
Looking at the Reds v Drua the Reds are now -3.5 and I am quite happy to sit on the original play of Reds to win at 9/10 taken when the lines came out.
The points line is 57.5 and as is often the case in Suva it is difficult to nail down conditions with any confidence.
It looks like we will get rain until a few hours before kick off and also after the game but the match itself looks likely to be played in hot (late 20's) conditions and the possibility of rain cnnot be discounted.
I am not getting involved but if I were not already on the Reds under 57.5 would be getting serious consideration.
BLUES v FORCE - weather update
Posted 02 May 07h32
The forecast I looked at looks like it is going to be pretty accurate although the early storms were a bit stronger than expected. Reports from Auckland is that the sun is out now and I am going to let my points bet ride.
I did consider hedging out for a small loss on under 56.5 at 0.98/1 at Betxchange but my stake is not that big and will hope that the field has drained well.
BLUES v FORCE
Posted 02 May 00h03
The Blues are -15.5 and that handicap looks well set although if forced to bet I would be on the Blues minus.
The points line is 56.5 and in what looks like being cool but decent conditions (forecast rain should have long past) I am looking at the overs.
The Force have scored alot more freely this season and the Blues team look to have plenty of points in them.
It is not a confident pick but lets hope we can get the weekend off to a positive start.
BET: 3 units over 56.5 at 9/10 at WSB
YOU TUBE STRIKE
Unfortunatly You Tube have decided that after 6 years our show is non-compliant and we cannot stream THE HANDICAP this week - we will be looking at a long term solution but the show will air tonight at 21h00 and you can watch on X or Facebook
X - follow @BrentGraham and hit the bell to be notified when we go live
Facebook - click here to watch
WEATHER FORECAST AND LINKS FOR SRP WEEK 12
Friday, 2 May 2025
Blues vs Western Force – 09:05 – Eden Park (Grass, Hybrid)
- Weather Forecast: Mild and Clear at kick off
- Humidity: High 70’s
- Forecast sourced at 11h48 on 30 April from TimeandDate
Saturday, 3 May 2025
Fijian Drua vs Queensland Reds – 04:05 – HFC Bank Stadium, Suva (Grass)
- Weather Forecast: High 20’s, loud, rain forecast either side of kick off
- Humidity: High 70’s
- Forecast sourced at 11h56 on 30 April from TimeandDate
Hurricanes vs Chiefs – 09:05 – Sky Stadium, Wellington (Grass with synthetic reinforcement)
- Weather Forecast: Cool, overcast
- Humidity: Early 80’s
- Forecast sourced at 12h02 on 30 April from TimeandDate
Brumbies vs NSW Waratahs – 11:35 – GIO Stadium (Grass)
- Weather Forecast: Cool and clear
- Humidity: late 50’s, early 60’s
- Forecast sourced at 12h07 on 30 April from TimeandDate
Sunday, 4 May 2025
Highlanders vs Moana Pasifika – 05:35 – Forsyth Barr Stadium (Fully enclosed roof, Hybrid)
HURRICANES SHORTEN AFTER TEAM NEWS
Posted 30 April 11h43
Teams have been announced and the Hurricanes have shortened to +3.5 from +7.5
We also have points lines whih are below with the latest caps at WSB
Blues -14.5 v Force, Points 55.5
Drua +2.5 v Reds, Points 57.5
Hurricanes +3.5 v Chiefs, Points 55.5
Brumbies -9.5 v Waratahs, Points 56.5
Highlanders -4.5 v Moana Pasifika, Points 63.5
Weather links to follow
MONEY FOR REDS AND CHIEFS
Posted 28 April 10h09
The Reds are out to -2.5 from -0.5 and the Chiefs are -7.5 from -5.5
The rugby betting thread for the week is also up and running in the forum
SRP WEEK 12 HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 28 April 08h14
The bookies are out with their handicaps and below is how the Betxchange handicaps in brackets compare to mine
Blues -16.5 (-15.5) v Force
Drua +7.5 (+0.5) v Reds
Hurricanes +5.5 (+5.5) v Chiefs
Brumbies -9.5 v (-9.5) Waratahs
Highlanders -7.5 (-4.5) v Moana Pasifika
Drua v Reds is the big difference and there is also a 3 point difference in the Highlanders v Pasifika but at my expected cap I would of been leaning Moana so no bet in that one.
I expect the Reds price to move though so an early bet.
BET: 5 units Reds to win at 9/10 at WSB
SRP WEEK 12 HANDICAP PROJECTIONS
Posted 27 April 21h21
In my regular Sunday night exercise I have a go at projecting the handicaps which I compare to the bookies lines on Monday. A big difference triggers a moe in depth analyses and potentially an early strike.
Blues -16.5 v Force
Drua +7.5 v Reds
Hurricanes +5.5 v Chiefs
Brumbies -9.5 v Waratahs
Highlanders -7.5 v Moana Pasifika
SRP TABLE AND BETTING AFTER WEEK 11
Posted 27 April 20h57
Below the latest satndings - games played in brackets - top 6 qualify for the playoffs
Chiefs – 37 (10)
Crusaders – 36 (10)
Brumbies – 28 (10)
Reds – 27 (9)
Hurricanes – 22 (10)
Force – 22 (10)
Waratahs – 21 (9)
Moana Pasifika – 20 (10)
Blues – 17 (10)
Highlanders – 17 (10)
Fijian Drua – 11 (10)
Here is the latest outright betting with 5 weeks remaining
Chiefs 13/10
Crusaders 2/1
Brumbies 15/2
Blues 8/1
Reds 9/1
Hurricanes 14/1
Waratahs 25/1
Western Force 80/1
Moana Pasifika 150/1
Highlanders 150/1
Fijian Drua 250/1
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 11 WRAP
Posted 27 April 20h50
Chiefs 56–22 Western Force, handicap started Chiefs -21.5, a disappointing start for the blog with Force under 21.5 missing
Reds 35–21 Blues, handiap started Reds -2.5, this bet was put up early (under 56.5 points) and it arrived in tense fashion.
Moana Pasifika 34–15 Fijian Drua, handicap started Pasifika -5.5, blog pick Pasifika -5.5 never in doubt
Highlanders 10–43 Crusaders, handicap started Crusaders -10.5, blog pick at 3.8/1 was points range 49-55 which arrived
Brumbies 29–35 Hurricanes, handiap started Hurricanes +5.5, blog pick was under 57.5 points which was dead a long way out
