The Investec Champions Cup semi-finals featuring Leinster v Northampton Saints and Bordeaux v Toulouse take place this coming weekend and this blog will over betting moves, forecast weather and ultimately a bet in each match.
SMALL INTEREST UNDERS IN LYON
Posted 04 March 12h16
I am not getting too involved in this one but fany Lyon will win it. Given the weather I am taking Lyon win and under 52.5 points at 15/10.
BET: 2 units Lyon win and under 52.5 points at 15/10 at Betxchange
LYON v RACING
Posted 04 May 10h43
The handicap is Lypn -6.5 and the points line is 52.5.
It looks as though we will have showers throughout the game but I am battling for a bet and will give some thought while out for brunch and will be back closer to kick off with a play on this game and the Champions Cup semi.
A MIXED BAG ON SATURDAY
Posted 04 May 00h17
The Edinburgh win + oversplay arrived after looking well beaten but Leinster points failed to land. What a semi-final that was though and full credit to Saints for the win.
That final disallowed try will long be debated and had it stood it would have been a good Saturday for me.
I will be back with thoughts on Sundays games after a good nights sleep.
LEINSTER v NORTHAMPTON
Posted 02 May 23h34
This handicap has been stable at around the -21.5 Leinster mark all week.
It is hard to argue given in their round of 16 and quarter-final matches they scored 114 points without conceding against Glasgow and Harlequins.
These sides met in last years semi-final and Leinster only won 20-17 which will give Saints fans hope.
The team Leinster put out is scary though and to have Jordie Barrett on the bench almost feels insulting.
It is a big handicap but I don't think it is big enough and my only question is whether to back the handicap or take Leinster points.
Conditions look likely to be decent with temperatures in the mid teens and a shower or two having passed earlier in the day.
I am going to back Leinster to score 36 points or more.
Will this bet make Saturdays newsletter? Click here to find out
BET: 5 units Leinster over 35.5 points at 17/20 at Hollywoodbets
EDINBURGH v BATH
Posted 02 May 23h08
There has been a significant betting move towards Edinburgh with the handicap moving from +10.5 to as low as +6.5.
I felt the +10.5 was a touch high but Bath have named a strong side at at -6.5 they start to appeal.
The points line opened 53.5 and is now 55.5 and I am in the overs camp in what looks like being good conditions. As a matter of interest both semi's went over 60 points last season.
This is not a tournament I am looking to get too involved in though and I will take the Bath win/Over 55.5 combo to increase the price and keep my stake down.
BET: 2 units Matchbet + Totals, Bath Win and Over 55.5 at 33/20 at Hollywoodbets
BETTING UPDATES
Posted 02 May 10h50
Make sure you get my weekly newsletter - https://bit.ly/gftgnewsletter
We have betting lines in the Challenge Cup and in the Champions Cup money is pouring on Bordeaux with Toulouse injury news not looking great
Leinster -21.5 v Northampton
Bordeaux +1.5 v Toulouse
Edinburgh +9.5 v Bath
Lyon -3.5 v Racing
WEATHER FORECAST AND LINKS
Saturday, 3 May 2025
Edinburgh vs Bath
Kick-off: 16h00 (South Africa time)
Venue: Hive Stadium, Edinburgh
Surface: Artificial
Weather Forecast: Cool, around 13 degrees, overcast but should be dry
Humidity: Mid 50’s
Weather Forecast sourced at 10h21 on 2 May from Timeanddate
Leinster Rugby vs Northampton Saints
Kick-off: 18:30 (South Africa time)
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Surface: Hybrid, 95% Grass
Weather Forecast: Cool, mid teens, possible showers
Humidity: High 50’s
Weather Forecast sourced at 09h57 on 2 May from Timeanddate
Sunday, 4 May 2025
Lyon v Racing 92
Kick-off: 13:30 (South Africa time)
Venue: Matmut Stadium de Gerland (Lyon)
Surface: Artificial
Weather Forecast: Mild, temp around 20 degrees, rain forecast
Humidity: Late 80’s
Weather Forecast sourced at 10h31 on 02 May from Timeanddate
Union Bordeaux-Bègles vs Stade Toulousain (Toulouse)
Kick-off: 16:00 (South Africa time)
Venue: Matmut Atlantique, Bordeaux
Surface: Hybrid
Weather Forecast: Mild temps around 20 degrees, rain forecast
Humidity: High 60’s
Weather Forecast sourced at 10h02 on 02 May from Timeanddate
YOU TUBE STRIKE
Unfortunatly You Tube have decided that after 6 years our show is non-compliant and we cannot stream THE HANDICAP this week - we will be looking at a long term solution but the show will air tonight at 21h00 and you can watch on X or Facebook
X - follow @BrentGraham and hit the bell to be notified when we go live - click here for a replay of last nights show
Facebook - click here to watch
The Challenge Cup semi-finals will also be covered.
INVESTEC CHAMPIONS UP SEMI-FINALS CURRENT BETTING
Posted 01 May
Saturday, 3 May 2025
Leinster Rugby vs Northampton Saints
Kick-off: 18:30 (South Africa time)
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Surface: Grass
Handicap: Leinster -21.5
Sunday, 4 May 2025
Union Bordeaux-Bègles vs Stade Toulousain (Toulouse)
Kick-off: 16:00 (South Africa time)
Venue: Matmut Atlantique, Bordeaux
Surface: Hybrid grass
Handicap: Bordeaux +4.5
