It's Week 16 of the URC and Brent Graham has a look at the handicaps, the latest outright betting, the weather and towards the end of the week a bet in each match with the fixtures featuring South African teams getting their own previews.
SCARLETS v LEINSTER
Posted 26 April 11h27
As expected Leinster are sending a 2nd string team with next weeks Champions Cup semi looming large.
They only need 1 win to top the log and with Zebre at home next time out a loss here will have little impact on their season.
The handicap has come in from +12.5 to +9.5 but as much as I hink Scarlets have a chance in a game which is far more important to them, I could still see Leinster winning easily.
I am going to leave the handicap and go for a straight line bet on the Scarlets who would most likely move into the top 8 with a win here given Stormers and Benetton are playing each other.
The points line is 51.5 and there is a chance of showers.
BET: 2 units Scarlets win at 3.75/1 at WSB
Click here for Stormers v Benetton Preview where overs is the call and a possible Newsletter Bet
OSPREYS v DRAGONS
Posted 26 April 09h15
I was way off with my cap for this game going -8.5 Ospreys but they opened -12.5 and are now -15.5. I realised straight away that it was my error and not the bookies and never got involved.
The points line is 55.5 and with some rain about early and 2 teams with nothing to lose (Ospreys could still make the playoffs in theory but with a trip to South Africa to come I can't see it)this line looks pretty well set.
Looking at the teams the Ospreys should be able to cover this handicap and given I will be watching the Lions game just a small interest for me.
BET: 2 units Ospreys -14.5 at Sportingbet
ZEBRE v EDINBURGH
Posted 24 April 23h59
I handicapped this game Zebre +4.5 expecting Edinburgh to rest players ahead of their Challenge Cup semi next week. They are also hard hit by injuries but although in 11th they are still very much in the playoff race although you feel a win here is essential.
The handicap opened +7.5 Zebre and they are now +1.5 which I think might be an overreraction. Zebre are basically gone and Edinburgh have more to play for even if not at full strength.
I see Edinburgh shading this and I fancy points as conditions look like being reasonable, Zebre can throw caution to the wind and they will surely chase a bonus point.
BET: 2 units Edinburgh win and over 48.5 points at 2.15/1 at Betxchange
You can click here for the Glasgow v Bulls Preview
CARDIFF v MUNSTER
Posted 24 April 23h36
This handicap has been stable at Cardiff +5.5 all week athough there has been some support for the home team and there is +4.5 in places.
This is a crucial game for both teams who are sitting 6th (Cardiff) and 7th (Munster) just a point apart.
Critically Cardiff in 6th are only 4 points ahead of Edinburgh in 11th and bad news for them is their last 2 games are in South Africa.
Given the weather doesn't look great and the importance of the match I am going for under 48.5 points a bet that would have arrived in the last 2 meetings between the sides in Cardiff.
BET: 3 units under 48.5 points at 0.98/1 at Betxchange
URC WEEK 16 WEATHER
Friday, April 25, 2025
- Glasgow Warriors vs Vodacom Bulls
- Kick-off: 20:35 SAST
- Venue: Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow
- Surface: Artificial turf
- Weather Forecast: Cool, rain forecast before the game
- Humidity: In the 60’s
- Forecast sourced at 17h26 on 24 April from timeanddate
- Cardiff vs Munster
- Kick-off: 20:35 SAST
- Venue: Cardiff Arms Park, Cardiff
- Surface: 3G Artificial turf
- Weather Forecast: Cool, showers forecast
- Humidity: In the 70’s
- Forecast sourced at 17h29 on 24 April from timeanddate
- Zebre Parma vs Edinburgh
- Kick-off: 20:35 SAST
- Venue: Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi, Parma
- Surface: Natural grass
- Weather Forecast: Thunder storms pre-game, Mild (20 degrees)
- Humidity: In the 60’s
- Forecast sourced at 17h34 on 24 April from timeanddate
Saturday, April 26, 2025
- Emirates Lions vs Connacht
- Kick-off: 16:00 SAST
- Venue: Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg
- Surface: Natural grass
- Weather Forecast: Clear, cool and dry (note, a lot of rain fell in the week)
- Humidity: Late 40’s
- Forecast sourced at 17h41 from timeanddate
- Ospreys vs Dragons
- Kick-off: 16:00 SAST
- Venue: Swansea.com Stadium
- Surface: GrassMaster
- Weather Forecast: Cool, rain forecast before game
- Humidity: Early 80’s
- Forecast sourced at 17h45 on 24 April from timeanddate
- DHL Stormers vs Benetton
- Kick-off: 18:15 SAST
- Venue: DHL Stadium, Cape Town
- Surface: Hybrid grass
- Weather Forecast: Overcast but dry
- Humidity: High 50’s
- Forecast sourced at 17h47 on April 24 from timeanddate
- Scarlets vs Leinster
- Kick-off: 18:15 SAST
- Venue: Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
- Surface: Natural grass
- Weather Forecast: Rain earlier in day, cool but clear
- Humidity: approx. 80%
- Forecast sourced at 1h50 on 24 April from timeanddate
- Ulster vs Hollywoodbets Sharks
- Kick-off: 20:35 SAST
- Venue: Kingspan Stadium, Belfast
- Surface: Artificial turf
- Weather Forecast: Cool and rain forecast
- Humidity: In 80’s
- Forecast sourced at 17h52 on 24 April from timeanddate
URC WEEK 16 HANDICAPS ARE UP
Posted 21 April 14h10
The handicaps are up and below is how they compare with mine - bookies caps in brackets
Glasgow Warriors -9.5 (-3.5) vs Vodacom Bulls - big difference, I like Glasgow at this line
Cardiff +5.5 (+5.5)vs Munster
Emirates Lions -6.5 (-5.5) vs Connacht
Ospreys -8.5 (-12.5) vs Dragons - 4 point difference but think my cap was wrong
DHL Stormers -11.5 (-8.5) vs Benetton
Scarlets +8.5 vs Leinster - no cap but Leinster 3/10 relating to around a +8.5 cap
Ulster +4.5 (+1.5) vs Hollywoodbets Sharks
Zebre Parma +4.5 (+7.5) vs Edinburgh
URC Round 16 – Fixtures and Handicap Projections
Posted 20 April 23h59
Below my handicap projections which will be compared with the bookies on Monday
Friday, April 25
Glasgow Warriors -9.5 vs Vodacom Bulls
Cardiff +5.5 vs Munster
Saturday, April 26
Emirates Lions -6.5 vs Connacht
Ospreys -8.5 vs Dragons
DHL Stormers -11.5 vs Benetton
Scarlets +8.5 vs Leinster (expecting Leinster to rest players)
Ulster +4.5 vs Hollywoodbets Sharks
Zebre Parma +4.5 vs Edinburgh (tricky, Edinburgh likely to rest players given Challenge Cup home semi against Bath next week)
URC WEEK 15 WRAP
Posted 20 April 23h50
Below are the weekends results, the match handicap and our blog picks outcome
Edinburgh 17 – 18 Hollywoodbets Sharks, Sharks started -3.5, blog pick under 50.5 wins easily
Emirates Lions 31 – 42 Benetton, Lions started -7.5, blog pick Lions over 30.5 scrapes home
DHL Stormers 34 – 29 Connacht, handicap started Stormers -18.5, Blog pick Stormers over 38.5 fall short
Ospreys 19 – 36 Cardiff Rugby, Ospreys started -1.5, blog pick over 48.5 arrives late on
Munster 13 – 16 Vodacom Bulls, Munster started -7.5, I forgot to add a bet but would have gone unders
Dragons 23 – 31 Scarlets, Scarlets started -11.5, Blog pick over 50.5 arrives
Zebre Parma 6 – 14 Glasgow Warriors, handicap started Glasgow -12.5, blog pick Zebre over 19.5 well short
Leinster 41 – 17 Ulster, handicap started Leinster -18.5, blog pick Ulster +8.5 HT cap just misses
URC 2025 – Standings After Round 15
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Leinster Rugby – Played: 15, Points: 67
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Glasgow Warriors – Played: 15, Points: 58
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Vodacom Bulls – Played: 15, Points: 54
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Hollywoodbets Sharks – Played: 15, Points: 49
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Benetton Rugby – Played: 15, Points: 41
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Cardiff Rugby – Played: 15, Points: 41
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Munster Rugby – Played: 15, Points: 40
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DHL Stormers – Played: 15, Points: 40
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Scarlets – Played: 15, Points: 38
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Ulster Rugby – Played: 15, Points: 37
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Edinburgh Rugby – Played: 15, Points: 37
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Connacht Rugby – Played: 15, Points: 35
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Ospreys – Played: 15, Points: 33
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Emirates Lions – Played: 15, Points: 31
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Zebre Parma – Played: 15, Points: 27
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Dragons RFC – Played: 15, Points: 9
URC 2025 – Outright Winner Odds
Leinster – 1.40
Blue Bulls – 6.00
Glasgow Warriors – 8.50
The Sharks – 13.00
Munster – 15.00
Stormers – 29.00
Benetton Treviso – 66.00
Edinburgh Rugby – 81.00
Cardiff Rugby – 81.00
Connacht Rugby – 151.00
Ulster Rugby – 201.00
Scarlets – 201.00
Lions – 501.00
Ospreys – 501.00
Zebre – 1001.00
