In this blog Brent Graham has a go at projecting the week 11 handicaps and he also looks at the latest outright betting, the weather and towards the end of the week a bet in each match.
HIGHLANDERS V CRUSADERS
Posted 26 April 01h02
This game opened Crusaders -8.5 and although I had them -6.5 I can't argue with the current cap of -10.5 on the visitors.
If pushed I would be on the Highlanders but I will look elsewhere for action.
The total points line of 56.5 looks pretty well set and I am going to take a speculative play on this one that the total points ends from 49-55 inclusive which would of occured in 50% of Highlanders home games this season.
BET: 2 units point range 49-55 inclusive at 3.80/1 at Betxchange
BRUMBIES v HURRICANES
Posted 26 April 00h45
I handicapped this game Brumbies -2.5 but the handicap at the time of writing is -5.5.
I don't really have a firm feel on this cap and will look to the points market with 57.5 the current line.
It looks likely we will get some rain during this match and the humidity is pushing towards the 90's.
It is nerve wracking to go unders in Super Rugby but I am hoping for a bit of an arm wrestle.
BET: 3 units under 57.5 points at 0.97/1 at Betxchange
MOANA PASIFIKA v FIJIAN DRUA
Posted 26 April 00h07
I handicapped this game Moana -8.5 and althoug some bookies have gone -6.5 and even -7.5 there is still some -5.5 on offer which is where it opened (or at least the 1st line I saw).
Points have moved from 64.5 to 60.5 on the back of a poor weather forecast.
Moana have an outside chance of making the playoffs and I like the minus here against a team that travels badly.
BET: 3 units Moana Pasifika -5.5 at 0.86/1 at Betxchange
A MIXED FRIDAY
Posted 25 April 23h57
I ould not watch this mornings rugby and perhaps it was just as well.
The Force u21.5 looks close but it was dead some way out but the real stress would have been Reds v Blues where the u56.5 just held up.
I was tracking scores and at half time thought the money was in the bank but by all accounts things got really stressful for unders backers.
I will be back with Saturday plays soon.
CHIEFS V FORCE
Posted 24 April 23h11
This line opened Chiefs -18.5 and has gone out to -20.5. If pushed I would be on the minus but I prefer taking Force to score under 21.5 points.
This Chiefs side are starting to look the business and I think they will be able to keep the Force to 3 converted tries or less.
BET: 3 units Force under 21.5 points at 17/20 at Pokerbet
REDS V BLUES
Posted 23 April 11h46
Money has come for the Reds and from an opening call of +0.5 they are now -1.5.
It is the points line that gets my interest though and with conditions not looking great and some typical Brisbane humidity I like under 56.5 as my 1st bet of the weekend.
This has been a high scoring fixture of late but given the importance for both teams I am pulling for an arm wrestle.
BET: 5 units under 56.5 points at 9/10 at WSB - I rekon this starts a couple of points lower
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC – ROUND 11 WEATHER LINKS
Friday, April 25, 2025
Chiefs vs Western Force
- Kick-off: 09:05 SAST
- Venue: Blake Park, Mount Maunganui, New Zealand
- Surface: Natural grass
- Weather Forecast: Cloudy but no rain forecast, temps in high teens
- Humidity: late 70’s
- Forecast sourced at: 10h55 on April 23 from timeanddate
Queensland Reds vs Blues
- Kick-off: 11:35 SAST
- Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Australia
- Surface: Hybrid turf (Wintergreen Bermudagrass with Ryegrass)
- Weather Forecast: Humid with strong chance of showers, Temps around 20 degrees
- Humidity: Early 90’s
- Forecast sourced at: 11h02 on April 23 from timeanddate
Saturday, April 26, 2025
Moana Pasifika vs Fijian Drua
- Kick-off: 06:35 SAST
- Venue: North Harbour Stadium, Auckland
- Surface: Natural grass
- Weather Forecast: Temps in mid to high teens, possible thunderstorms and forecast for rain
- Humidity: low 80’s
- Forecast sourced at: 11h18 on April 23 from timeanddate
Highlanders vs Crusaders
- Kick-off: 09:05 SAST
- Venue: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, New Zealand
- Surface: Desso GrassMaster (reinforced natural grass)
- Weather Forecast: Under roof
ACT Brumbies vs Hurricanes
- Kick-off: 11:35 SAST
- Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra, Australia
- Surface: Natural grass
- Weather Forecast: Mild, possible rain, thundershowers forecast before the game
- Humidity: Low 80’s
- Forecast sourced at: 11h11 on 23 April from timeanddate
Remember weather forecasts are seldom 100% accurate a few days out so always best to check in closer to game time.
HANDICAP AND TOTAL POINTS UPDATE
Posted 23 April 10h10
Chiefs -20.5 v Force, Points 60.5
Reds -1.5 v Blues, Points 56.5
Moana -5.5 v Drua, Points 61.5
Highlanders +9.5 v Crusaders, Points 56.5
Brumbies -5.5 v Hurricanes, Points 58.5
Weather forecast and links to follow
EARLY MOVES
Posted 21 April 11h50
The Chiefs are out to -21.5 from -18.5
The Reds have gone -0.5 from +0.5
Pasifika have edged to -6.5 from -5.5
Highlanders are +10.5 from +9.5
The weekly rugby betting thread in the forum is a must follow
SRP WEEK 11 HANDICAPS ARE UP
Posted 21 April 09h39
The bookies are out with their handicaps and below I compare the Betxchange handicaps (in brackets) to mine
Chiefs -18.5 (-18.5) v Force
Reds +3.5 (+0.5) v Blues
Moana -8.5 (-5.5) v Drua
Highlanders +6.5 (+9.5) v Crusaders
Brumbies -2.5 (-5.5) v Hurricanes
Nothing dramatic but 3 point differences in Reds, Moana, Highlanders and Brumbies games.
SRP WEEK 11 HANDICAP PROJECTIONS
Posted 20 April 21h13
Below are my handicap projections which I will compare with the bookmakers on Monday.
Chiefs -18.5 v Force
Reds +3.5 v Blues
Moana -8.5 v Drua
Highlanders +6.5 v Crusaders
Brumbies -2.5 v Hurricanes
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 9 REVIEW
Posted 20 April 08h59
Below a summary of the Week 10 SRP results and the blog plays
Crusaders 25 Blues 22, handicap started Crusaders -4.5, a nice start for the blog with either team by 7 or less at 15/10
Fijian Drua 28 Waratahs 14, handicap started Drua -6.5, Blog pick Waratahs board at 3/1 a loser
Moana Pasifika 0 Brumbies 24, handicap started Brumbies -7.5, blog pick was under 64.5 points so an easy winner
Chiefs 46 Highlanders 10, handicap started Chiefs -15.5, blog pick Chiefs by 11-20 at 5/2 missed
Force 17 Hurricanes 17, handicap started Force +4.5, blog pick was over 60.5, sadly never a runner
SRP TABLE AFTER WEEK 10
The Chiefs are ahead of the Crusaders on points difference with both teams on 32 points from 9 games.
The Brumbies are 4 points back in 3rd with the Reds who have a game in hand over the top 3 a further 5 points back on 23 points.
Positions 7-10 are only separated by 3 points.
Latest Outright Betting
Chiefs – 2.50
Crusaders – 4.00
Blues – 6.00
Brumbies – 8.00
Reds – 11.00
Hurricanes – 17.00
Waratahs – 29.00
Western Force – 51.00
Highlanders – 101.00
Moana Pasifika – 151.00
Fijian Drua – 201.00
