The Nations Championship returns this weekend after the first three rounds were played in July. The action now moves to Europe, with another three rounds to come before the finals weekend at Twickenham from 27 to 29 November.
Bet: England v Australia
Posted 08 November 10h36
Bet: 3 units (1–5), Australia +8.5 points at 0.88/1 at BetXchange - for more detail read the full preview here
Nations Championship Round 4 – England v Australia Betting and Weather Update
Sunday 8 November 10h30
Yesterday turned out to be a good day for us, with New Zealand delivering on both the handicap and team points overs, while Japan also came through. Fiji let us down against France, but overall it was a decent day, and hopefully we can finish the weekend on a high.
There's just one match remaining in Round 4 of the Nations Championship, with England hosting Australia at Twickenham this afternoon.
Latest Betting Lines
England v Australia – Sunday 8 November, 17:10 SA time
England -8.5 v Australia | Points 58.5
England's handicap has moved around during the week, opening at -10.5 before shortening to -7.5 yesterday. It has now moved back out to -8.5.
Weather Forecast – Twickenham
The latest forecast looks favourable for running rugby, with cool but largely dry conditions expected.
Temperatures should be around 10°C at kickoff, dropping towards 8°C as the match progresses. There is little chance of rain, and winds are expected to be light, so weather shouldn't be a major factor.
Hourly weather forecast – Twickenham
I'll be back with my bet shortly
Bet: France v Fiji
Posted 07 November 15h44
Bet: 2 units (1–5), Fiji +24.5 points at 0.93/1 at BetXchange - more detail in the France v Fiji preview
Bet: Wales v Japan
Posted 07 November 09h23
Bet: 2 units (1–5), Japan over 20.5 team points at 0.93/1 at World Sports Betting - more detail in the Wales v Japan preview
Bet 2: Scotland v New Zealand
Posted 07 November 09h04
Bet: 2 units (1–5), New Zealand over 33.5 team points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets - more detail in the Scotland v New Zealand Preview
Bet: Italy v South Africa
Posted 07 Nov 08h08
Bet: 0.5 units (1–5), Grant Williams last South African try scorer at 10/1 at PokerBet - more detail in the Italy v SA preview
Nations Championship Round 4 – Latest Handicaps, Points Lines and Weather
Saturday 7 November 07h45
Argentina let me down last night, so i]I am looking to fight back today with four Nations Championship matches on the programme, including the Springboks taking on Italy in Turin.
Here are the latest handicaps and total points lines from World Sports Betting, along with a weather update for each of the remaining five matches.
Latest Betting Lines
Saturday 7 November
Italy +28.5 v South Africa | Points 63.5
Scotland +10.5 v New Zealand | Points 58.5
Wales -14.5 v Japan | Points 59.5
France -24.5 v Fiji | Points 64.5
Sunday 8 November
England -7.5 v Australia | Points 57.5
Handicap and Points Line Movements
The Springboks have continued to attract support, with their handicap against Italy moving from -26.5 on Thursday to -28.5 this morning.
England's handicap against Australia has shortened from -8.5 to -7.5, while Wales have eased from -15.5 to -14.5 against Japan.
The Scotland v New Zealand and France v Fiji handicaps remain unchanged since Thursday's update.
On the totals, Wales v Japan has dropped from 60.5 to 59.5, while the other four matches remain unchanged.
Latest Weather Forecast
All kickoff times are South African time.
Italy v South Africa – Turin, 13:40
Mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals developing. Temperatures around 12–14°C, with very little chance of rain and no significant wind concerns. Conditions should be favourable for running rugby.
Hourly weather forecast – Turin
Scotland v New Zealand – Edinburgh, 16:10
Cloudy and cool, with temperatures around 10–11°C. Light winds and little indication of significant rain during the match. Conditions should be reasonable despite the chilly temperatures.
Hourly weather forecast – Edinburgh
Wales v Japan – Cardiff, 18:40
The Principality Stadium roof will be closed for this match, so outside weather conditions should not be a factor.
France v Fiji – Lyon, 22:10
Cool and mostly cloudy, with temperatures likely to be around 8–10°C by kickoff. Generally dry conditions are expected, with no major weather concerns at this stage.
Hourly weather forecast – Lyon
England v Australia – London, Sunday 17:10
Partly sunny and cool, with temperatures around 10–11°C. The forecast is largely dry, with little chance of rain. Conditions look favourable for an open game.
Hourly weather forecast – London
I will be back with todays bets soon.
Bet: Ireland v Argentina
Posted 05 November 22h21
Bet: 2.5 units (1–5), Argentina +9.5 points at 0.93/1 at World Sports Betting
Details in the Ireland v Argentina preview
Nations Championship Round 4 – Latest Handicaps and Points
Thursday 5 November 15h06
Friday 6 November
Ireland -9.5 v Argentina | Points 53.5
Saturday 7 November
Italy +26.5 v South Africa | Points 63.5
Scotland +10.5 v New Zealand | Points 58.5
Wales -15.5 v Japan | Points 60.5
France -24.5 v Fiji | Points 64.5
Sunday 8 November
England -8.5 v Australia | Points 57.5
No significant movement since the last update but we have total points lines
Nations Championship Round 4 – Latest Handicap Lines
Tuesday 3 November 09h32
The latest handicap lines are in for this weekend's six Nations Championship matches, with some significant movement since the opening prices.
Ireland -10.5 (-12.5) v Argentina
Italy +25.5 (+20.5) v South Africa
Scotland +9.5 (+8.5) v New Zealand
Wales -14.5 (-10.5) v Japan
France -23.5 (-23.5) v Fiji
England -8.5 (-10.5) v Australia
The biggest move has come in the Italy v South Africa match, where the Springboks have moved from 20.5-point favourites to 25.5-point favourites after the Bok team was announced.
Wales have also attracted support, moving from -10.5 to -14.5 against Japan, while England's handicap against Australia has shortened from -10.5 to -8.5.
Ireland's handicap has eased by two points against Argentina, while New Zealand have moved out by a point against Scotland. France v Fiji remains unchanged.
Bet: Scotland v New Zealand
Posted 02 November 09h58
2.5 units (1-5) New Zealand -8.5 points at 19/20 at World Sports Betting
I am getting my 1st bet down early and a full explanation in the Scotland v New Zealand match preview
Nations Championship Round 4 – Early Weather Forecast
Monday 2 November 2026 | All kickoffs South African time
An early look at the weather for this weekend's six Nations Championship matches suggests generally favourable playing conditions. Temperatures will be on the cool side, but there is currently little indication of significant rain or strong winds at kickoff.
Wales v Japan will (almost certainly) be played under the roof at the Principality Stadium, so outside weather conditions should not be a factor.
Friday 6 November
Ireland v Argentina
Dublin · KO 22:10
Cloudy and cool, around 9°C. Dry conditions expected with little wind.
9°C
Saturday 7 November
Italy v South Africa
Turin · KO 13:40
Mostly cloudy, around 12–14°C. Very little chance of rain and favourable playing conditions.
13°C
Scotland v New Zealand
Edinburgh · KO 16:10
Overcast and chilly, around 9–10°C. Rain is unlikely during the match, with light winds forecast.
9°C
Wales v Japan
Cardiff · KO 18:40
Under the closed roof at the Principality Stadium. Weather should have no impact on playing conditions.
Roof closed
France v Fiji
Lyon · KO 22:10
Cloudy and cool, around 9°C. Dry conditions expected with very little wind.
9°C
Sunday 8 November
England v Australia
London · KO 17:10
Partly sunny and cool, around 10–11°C. Dry weather and light winds expected.
11°C
Early betting-weather assessment: Nothing particularly concerning at this stage. All five outdoor matches are forecast to be largely dry, with no major wind concerns. Scotland v New Zealand will be chilly, while Wales v Japan has the advantage of controlled conditions under the roof.
Forecasts are preliminary and subject to change. We will revisit conditions closer to kickoff, particularly wind speeds and the possibility of rain.
Update heading into Round 4
The competition features 12 teams divided into Northern and Southern Hemisphere groups. Each team plays all six opponents from the other hemisphere, with the group winners meeting in the final on 29 November. The remaining teams also face their opposite-ranked counterparts over finals weekend.
South Africa and New Zealand are the only unbeaten sides after three rounds, both sitting on 15 points in the Southern Hemisphere group. The Springboks lead on points difference, with Australia third on eight points, followed by Argentina on seven, Japan on four and Fiji yet to register a point.
France lead the Northern Hemisphere group on 12 points, just ahead of Scotland on 11. England and Ireland are both on 10, Wales have five and Italy are still looking for their first point.
We'll use this blog to track the latest betting, handicap movements and any selections that catch our eye during Round 4.
Nations Championship Outright Betting
The Springboks are favourites to win the inaugural Nations Championship, with New Zealand and France next in the market.
Latest outright betting:
- South Africa – 1/1
- New Zealand – 3/1
- France – 13/4
- England – 17/2
- Ireland – 16/1
- Scotland – 28/1
South Africa and New Zealand are well placed to contest the Southern Hemisphere's spot in the final, while the Northern Hemisphere race looks much more open, with France, Scotland, England and Ireland separated by just two points.
Round 4 Fixtures and Early Handicaps
Handicaps correct at time of posting on 1 November
Friday 6 November
IRELAND V ARGENTINA
Handicap: Ireland -12.5
Ireland sit fourth in the Northern Hemisphere group on 10 points, while Argentina are fourth in the Southern Hemisphere group on seven.
Ireland have won two of their three matches, as have most of their Northern Hemisphere rivals, and will be keen to get their November campaign off to a winning start. Argentina have one win from three, and the bookmakers have Ireland clear favourites in Dublin.
I will be watching Argentina team news as at full strength I think they are runners.
Saturday 7 November
ITALY V SOUTH AFRICA
Handicap: South Africa -20.5
Italy are bottom of the Northern Hemisphere group with no points, while South Africa lead the Southern Hemisphere group with a maximum 15 points.
The Springboks won all three July fixtures, scoring 130 points and conceding just 49. They are strong favourites in Turin, with the opening handicap asking them to win by more than three converted tries.
The Boks will know that bonus points and points difference could play a big role in the Southern Hemisphere section.
SCOTLAND V NEW ZEALAND
Handicap: New Zealand -8.5
Scotland are second in the Northern Hemisphere group on 11 points, while New Zealand sit second in the Southern Hemisphere group on 15.
This looks one of the more interesting games of the weekend. Scotland won two of their three July fixtures, while the All Blacks remain unbeaten. New Zealand are clear favourites, but Scotland will fancy their chances of making a game of it at Murrayfield.
WALES V JAPAN
Handicap: Wales -10.5
Wales sit fifth in the Northern Hemisphere group on five points, while Japan are fifth in the Southern Hemisphere group on four.
Both sides have managed just one win from three matches. Wales will be looking to make home advantage count in Cardiff, although Japan will see this as one of their better opportunities to pick up another victory.
Both sides have shown some promising form of late.
FRANCE V FIJI
Handicap: France -23.5
France lead the Northern Hemisphere group on 12 points, while Fiji are bottom of the Southern Hemisphere group without a point.
France have won two of their three fixtures, with their only defeat coming narrowly against New Zealand. Fiji have lost all three matches, and the French are unsurprisingly the biggest handicap favourites of the weekend.
Keep an eye on Fiji team news.
Sunday 8 November
ENGLAND V AUSTRALIA
Handicap: England -10.5
England are third in the Northern Hemisphere group on 10 points, while Australia sit third in the Southern Hemisphere group on eight.
England won two of their three July fixtures, while Australia managed just one victory. The Wallabies have been competitive at times, but England are favourites at Twickenham, with the handicap currently in double figures.
Looking Ahead
Round 5 takes place from 13 to 15 November, with France hosting South Africa in Paris one of the standout fixtures. The Springboks then travel to Dublin to face Ireland in Round 6, while New Zealand have a potentially decisive meeting with England at Twickenham.
After the six rounds, the teams will be ranked within their respective hemisphere groups, with the top Northern and Southern Hemisphere sides meeting in the final on Sunday 29 November.
We'll update this blog as the week progresses, particularly once team news becomes available and the betting markets start to move.
Disclaimer: Betting markets and handicaps are subject to change. Always check the latest prices and team news before placing a bet.