Nations Championship Round 4 plus other rugby 6-8 November

URC round 5 was a mixed bag for me with my biggest bet and newsletter play Bulls over 45.5 arriving in style. I also hit the Sharks to win at 13/10 but the Stormers got going too late to land the over 37.5 and Edinburgh were awful away to Benetton. 

We now have 4 straight weeks of quality internationals to look forward to and here are the early handicaps 

Ireland -12.5 v Argentina
 Italy +20.5 v South Africa
 Scotland +8.5 v New Zealand
 Wales -10.5 v Japan
 France -23.5 v Fiji
 England -10.5 v Australia
 

Each match will have its own preview but I will be keeping an eye on betting moves etc in the Round 4 blog 

NZ -8 @ 10/11 the stand out for me. I will take it but will keep bigger bet for a nz points line. I just feel all blacks are super focussed after bok series loss and Scotland could be rusty. I think a good surface and currently forecast dry conditions, plus daytime game, really plays into all blacks hands. 

With you on this one South 

Scotland v New Zealand Preview 

New Zealand -8.5 at 19/20 

i see NZ pts line is 33.5 @ 10/11. I'm taking some overs., will manage stake for now in case of weather forecast chaning.

The Handicap is live at 21h00 

The Mossman joins me tonight 

Click here to watch on You Tube 

Must be going mad but I quietly fancy a possible upset in Dublin. The Pumas line up is much strong than their last game a draw vs Aus, and their playmakers in key positions have been in strong form.

There has been some support on the cap, but I’m looking at Argentina over 21.5 pts if conditions look ok. 

For now will have a small interest Pumas win @ 3/1

I'll be surprised if Wales dont beat the Japanese by more than 15. The only thing they have going for them is that they have been together for a while so should be reasonably well oiled.

Wales by 25 ! 

Come to think of it though. I have been surprised a lot recently ...

Guys we are working on a rugby betting game - it is still raw but if you want to test here is the link 

Alot to be added such as stats etc

Please let me have any feedback - any issues or what you would like to see 

Entries close at 21h00 tonight 

World Rugby Nations Cup
Romania vs Tonga

After the first three matches, Romania are third in their group with 9 points (1W-1D-1L), while Tonga are 4th in the 2nd group with 7 points (1W-2L).

Romania played all their first round games in South America, losing to Chile, drawing with Uruguay and beating Samoa.
Tonga defeated Zimbabwe and lost to Spain and Portugal.

To add weight to this event, Mark Robinson, a former All Blacks, who is now Chief of Rugby at World Rugby, is visiting Romania and will attend this match in Bucharest.

This could be an extra motivational factor for the Oaks (Romania), as both World Rugby and Rugby Europe have been organizing various events and development programmes in Romania.

Romania's matches have had plenty of points so far, with 79, 72 and 75 respectively in the first three matches.
The total set for this match is 58.5 points and 7.5 tries.

If they can maintain their discipline and not get sin binned (they got two yellows against Uruguay and two against Chile), Romania can win this.

Bet 1: Romania to win @2.00
Bet 2: Total over 7.5 tries @1.75

Very nice preview there Quill. I also fancy Romania tonight. Oaks always tough to beat at home.

Following with the Romania win - 11/10 @ WSB

Tonga leaked points in the first three rounds including conceding 26 points to Zimbabwe.

Romania total tries over 3.5 - 97/100 @ Pokerbet

This Tongan victory makes it 5 bets lost on the trot for me. I'm in a hole that's difficult to climb out of !

Question is, will the Irish game make it 6 .......

 

Was glad to see you liked Argentina Southpaw !! I really like them tonight , have lumped on plus 9.5 , smaller under 52.5 and will also have a bet on Puma points at 21.5 . Laying Ireland outright on Betfair . Play well 

Geez I’m glad I kept my interest in this game to just a nibble on the pumas win, as they have been their own worst enemy once again!! Always the case, they dominated first 20 min but now 23 pts down. Same old Argentina. 

at least let’s see some fight from them this 2nd half. 

Argentina were awful but impressed by Ireland. Brilliant in the lineouts and some of that handling was out of this world 

 

Italy v Boks preview 

I am battling for a firm view in the Bok game so taken 

Williams last Bok try scorer at 10/1 for now 



 

Jameson wrote:

This Tongan victory makes it 5 bets lost on the trot for me. I'm in a hole that's difficult to climb out of !

Question is, will the Irish game make it 6 .......

 

I feel your pain @Jameson. Started the URC off with a flyer but not been easy the last couple of weeks. Romania tries arrived with ease, but would have liked the outright win to arrive. Argentina less said the better, but as Brent mentioned Ireland were quite impressive.

Hoping for a change in fortune later today, like Japan +14.5 though they've got some pretty awful form away from home against Tier 1 countries.

Then against the grain: Small bet on Scotland +10.5. Scots tend to grow an extra leg for this fixture and have pushed the All Blacks close at Murrayfield in their last 3 meetings with small moments costing them. 

Quill wrote:

World Rugby Nations Cup
Romania vs Tonga

After the first three matches, Romania are third in their group with 9 points (1W-1D-1L), while Tonga are 4th in the 2nd group with 7 points (1W-2L).

Romania played all their first round games in South America, losing to Chile, drawing with Uruguay and beating Samoa.
Tonga defeated Zimbabwe and lost to Spain and Portugal.

To add weight to this event, Mark Robinson, a former All Blacks, who is now Chief of Rugby at World Rugby, is visiting Romania and will attend this match in Bucharest.

This could be an extra motivational factor for the Oaks (Romania), as both World Rugby and Rugby Europe have been organizing various events and development programmes in Romania.

Romania's matches have had plenty of points so far, with 79, 72 and 75 respectively in the first three matches.
The total set for this match is 58.5 points and 7.5 tries.

If they can maintain their discipline and not get sin binned (they got two yellows against Uruguay and two against Chile), Romania can win this.

Bet 1: Romania to win @2.00
Bet 2: Total over 7.5 tries @1.75

Romania lost by 5, but they made some costly mistakes in the last few minutes.
The biggest was a penalty that they wanted to go to the corner, but the kick didn't find touch.
The Romanian maul was mighty effective, and that's how they scored a few of their tries.

Now it's a story of "what might have been", and a lost bet is a lost bet.
Luckily the points and tries arrived with ease.

Tougher matches awaits them now with USA and Canada coming next.

In the end I didnt bet on the Irish game. I was considering Ireland -4.5 in live play after they conceded that 1st try but the Argies looked so good at that point ! So a positive result since I didnt lose but didnt win either!

Today 1st up I fancy SA -28.5. Too many Italian 1st choice player out?

Scotland v New Zealand Preview 

New Zealand over 33.5 team points 

Already on New Zealand -8.5, but adding the team points over. With points difference potentially crucial in the Southern Hemisphere standings, I expect the All Blacks to keep attacking even if they establish a comfortable lead.

Looking for at least 34 points.

Wales v Japan Preview 

Japan over 20.5 team points at 0.93/1