The Bulls are the first of the South African sides in action in United Rugby Championship this week as they take on the Scarlets in Llanelli on Friday
Scarlets v Bulls, Friday 18th October, Llanelli, KO 20:35 (South African time)
Referee: Federico Vedovelli (Italy)
Assistant referees: Craig Evans (Wales) and Nathan James (Wales)
TMO: Stefano Penne (Italy)
Weather Forecast - Llanelli
Scarlets:
Coming into Round 5 the Scarlets have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats against their name and with 7 log points they are just below half way in the standings.
They opened their win account last weekend with a 25-19 victory away to Cardiff whilst the draw came away to Benetton (20-20) in the opening round. Two home game so far ended in defeat, 24-15 in the first clash with Cardiff in Round 2 and in Round 3 they were edged out 24-23 by Connacht.
When hosting South African sides last season the Scarlets lost 24-23 to the Lions in Round 4 and 32-27 to the Sharks in Round 15 whilst a Round 1 visit to the Bulls saw them beaten 63-21 at Loftus.
In the outright betting to win the URC title the Scarlets are 420/1 shots with BoyleSports.
Bulls:
The Bulls remain in Wales after extending their 100% record with a 29-19 win over the Ospreys in Round 4. They scored the first 26 points of the game including 4 tries but after David Kriel picked up a red card early in the second half and two other players saw yellow the Ospreys came back into it.
The Bulls are now 3 wins from 3 and with 14 log points they are fourth in the standings, level with the Lions, 2 points shy of Glasgow Warriors and 6 adrift of Leinster and the South African sides have a game in hand.
The Bulls started their tournament with a 22-16 home win over Edinburgh in Round 2, coming short of landing a bonus point (3 tries to 1) and in Round 2 they saw off Ulster 47-21 at Loftus, scoring 7 tries.
After this the Bulls wrap up this tour away to Benetton and in the outright betting to win the URC title they are 53/10 second favourites with BoyleSports who make Leinster (0.72/1) the team to beat.
Team News
Scarlets: 15 Ioan Nicholas, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Johnny Williams, 12 Eddie James, 11 Blair Murray, 10 Ioan Lloyd, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Josh Macleod (captain), 6 Max Douglas, 5 Sam Lousi, 4 Alex Craig, 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Kemsley Mathias.
Replacements: 16 Marnus van der Merwe, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 Jac Price, 20 Dan Davis, 21 Efan Jones, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Macs Page
Bulls: 15 Henry Immelman, 14 Sebastian de Klerk, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Boeta Chamberlain, 9 Zak Burger, 8 Cameron Hanekom, 7 Reinhardt Ludwig, 6 Kuyenzeka Xaba, 5 Cobus Wiese, 4 Ruan Vermaak, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Armand van der Merwe (captain), 1 Jan-hendrik Wessels.
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Dylan Smith, 18 Francois Klopper, 19 JF van Heerden, 20 Celimpilo Gumede, 21 Embrose Papier, 22 Chris Barend Smit, 23 Stedman Gans
The Betting,
Updated 18 October 06h58
Scarlets +10.5 points at 9/10
Bulls -10.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Posted 18 October 06h59
This handicap opened +12.5 Scarlets but it has come in to +10.5 after the Bulls team announcement where they rested a few Boks.
I capped this +8.5 so while leaning Scarlets there is no obvious value in the handicap for me.
The Scarlets have lost 4 of their last 5 home games but none of those losses were by more than 12 points and I can see the Bulls edging this one.
BET: 2 units Bulls win by 1-12 points inclusive at 7/4 at Sportingbet*
*If you don’t have a Sportingbet account please use this link to open one
The weather forecast doesn’t look great and the points line of 45.5 requires further thought and if I place any more bets I will update this preview and of course the rugby forum thread
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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