Sunday's action in the United Rugby Championship comes from Johannesburg where the Lions take on another of the play off hopefuls in the shape of the Scarlets
Lions v Scarlets, Sunday 11th May, Johannesburg, KO 15:00 (South African time)
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant Referees: Griffin Colby (South Africa), Stephan Geldenhuys (South Africa)
TMO: Eoghan Cross (Ireland)
Weather Forecast – Johannesburg
Lions:
The Lions come into the round in 13th position in the standings with a record of 7 wins and 9 defeats. Their tally of 35 log points is now 6 shy of a play off place and with just 2 rounds of matches to go in the regular season a favourable set of results on Friday and Saturday will be required for the Lions to remain in contention.
A 26-7 home win over Connacht in Round 16 snapped a 3 match losing streak which included a damaging 42-31 home defeat to Benetton. Their only other defeat in Johannesburg in the URC this season came against the Bulls in Round 10.
After this the Lions finish up the URC regular season at home to the Ospreys and in the outright betting the Lions are 250/1 shots to win the URC title with WSB.
Scarlets:
The Scarlets finished Round 16 in seventh position with a record of 8 wins, 1 draw and 7 defeats for 43 log points. It's very congested in that area of the log with only 5 points separating 7th to 12th..
In earlier matches against SA sides the Scarlets edged out the Bulls 23-22 in a Round 5 home fixture but in Round 13 they went down 29-17 at home to the Stormers. Since that defeat to the Stormers they have reeled off 3 straight win and most recently they downed log leaders Leinster 35-22.
In the final round of matches the Scarlets visit the Sharks and in the outright betting to win the URC title the Scarlets are 150/1 with WSB.
Team News
Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Richard Kriel, 13 Henco van Wyk, 12 Bronson Mills, 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Kade Wolhuter, 9 Nico Steyn, 8 Jarod Cairns, 7 Renzo du Plessis, 6 JC Pretorius, 5 Ruan Delport, 4 Ruan Venter, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 Jaco Visagie (captain), 1 Morgan Naude.
Replacements: 16 PJ Botha, 17 SJ Kotze, 18 RF Schoeman, 19 Darrien Landsberg, 20 Sibabalo Qoma, 21 Layton Horn, 22 Lubabalo Dobela, 23 Rynhardt Jonker
Scarlets: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Josh Macleod (c), 6 Vaea Fifita, 5 Sam Lousi, 4 Alex Craig, 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Marnus van der Merwe, 1 Alec Hepburn,
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Kemsley Mathias, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 Dan Davis, 20 Jarrod Taylor, 21 Archie Hughes, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Macs Page
The Betting,
Updated 09 May 08h24
Lions -6.5 points at 9/10
Scarlets +6.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Posted 09 May 08h30
The Lions are still in the hunt mathematically but deep down I suspect they know they are not going to make it. The Scarlets are very muh alive but have a really tough end to their campaign in SA with the Sharks away next weekend.
There was some +8.5 Scarlets early in the week so money has come for them.
The weather looks excellent and I will take a watching brief until we see lines and teams.
Posted 11 May 08h46
I have woken up to a clear and dry day in Joburg but it is quite windy. The wind seems to be dropping though and I am quite happy to see a points line of 56.5 although suspect it may move up to 58-60 quite quickly.
The Lions can no longer qualify but the Scarlets are 10th but can jump to 6th win a win or bonus point win here. A bonus point win would almost put them in the last 8 given next weeks fixtures where 2 of the teams below them would play each other and another (Cardiff) is away to the Sharks who are chasing 3rd spot.
Overs is the play here but I prefer Scarlets overs and I also like them to win the game at 19/10
BET: 5 units Scarlets over 25.5 points at 10/11 at Betxchange
BET: 1 unit Sarlets win and over 56.5 points at 4.4/1 at Betxchange
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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