In this blog Brent Graham has a go at predicting the week 4 Super Rugby Pacific Week 4 handicaps and he then tracks market moves, considers the weather and ultimately places a bet on each game.
Brent sends out a weekly betting newsletter in which he shares his punting ups, downs and lessons as well as weekend plays. This is not a tipping service and hopefully both seasoned and novice sports bettors will enjoy being part of the community.
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CRUSADERS v REDS
Posted 09 Marh 00h18
I won't be up for this one having just said goodbye to our guests.
Money has come for the Crusaders who have gone from -6.5 to -11.5 and the points line is 60.5.
I am not confident about the cap and will have a bet that the Reds score 3 tries or less.
BET: 3 units Reds under 3.5 tries at 10/11 at Sportingbet
WARATAHS v WESTERN FORCE
Posted 08 March 08h51
This handicap opened Waratahs -8.5 so there has been some money for the visitors as it is currently -6.5.
The points line looks low at 51.5 but there was heavy rain forecast and at the time of writing things don't look that bad but rain still likley.
Having capped this game Waratahs -7.5 I have no strong feel and this game has the feeling of a narrow home win.
BET: 2 units Waratahs win by 1-12 points inclusive at 37/20 at Betxchange
MOANA PASIFIKA v HURRICANES
Posted 07 March 18h02
This handicap has been steady at +10.5 Moana which is where I set it.
The points line is 64.5 and the way these sides play that may not be high enough.
As pointed out by Nathan on THE HANDICAP our rugby betting show the Canes have some strength on the bench and I reckon they score 19 or more 2nd half points.
BET: 4 units Hurricanes over 18.5 2nd half points at 0.78/1 at Sunbet
DRUA V CHIEFS
Posted 07 March 17h56
The handicap has been stable at +9.5 Drua and if pushed I would be on the plus.
I am sticking to points though and with hot, humid conditions expected and possibly some showers I am taking the under 61.5.
BET: 4 units under 61.5 points at Pokerbet
BLUES v BRUMBIES
Posted 06 March 23h07
This line opened -12.5 Blues which was well off my cap of -7.5. The line has come in to -9.5 and it appears to have settled.
The points line is 58.5 and conditions look like they will be good.
The Blues are playing Beauden Barret at 10 and it will be interesting to see if that ignites their backline.
I am not strong on anything in the opener and will take an interest that the Blues win by 1-12 points inclusive.
BET: 2 units Blues by 1-12 points at 41/20 at Betxchange
WEATHER LINKS FOR THE WEEKENDS ACTION
Posted 06 March 18h31
Rugby punters track the weather like few others and here are links to the 5 venues this weekend
Blues v Brumbies, Friday 08h35, Eden Park, Auckland (Grass, Hybrid) - mild and clear
I am being called for supper, back with the balance shortly
Drua v Chiefs, Saturday 05h35, Churchill Park, Lautoka - Hot, rain forecast
Pasifika v Hurricanes, Saturday 08h05, North Harbour Stadium, Auckland (Grass) - moderate conditiions, rain forecast before the game
Waratahs v Force, Saturday 10h35, Allainz Stadium, Sydney (Matrix "Ready to Play" Turf) - rain forecast
Crusaders v Reds, Sunday 04h35, Appolo Pojects Stadium, Christchurch (Grass) - clear, possible wind
THE HANDICAP LIVE AT 21H15
Posted 06 March 10h04
There has been support for the Brumbies from +12.5 to +10.5 although still not at my line of +7.5.
No other big moves to report
NOTE: Our live rugby betting show "The Handicap" will start at 21h15 SA time tonight and not 21h00 - click here to set a reminder on YOU TUBE
MONEY FOR THE CRUSADERS
Posted 4 March 08h27
There has been very little movement over the past 24 hours but the Crusaders have moved from -6.5 to -8.5 (which is where I capped them) against the Reds - movement at Betxchange
HANDICAPS AND POINTS LINES ARE OUT
Posted 03 March 07h15
The opening lines are out for SRP week 4 and here is how they compare to mine - Betxchange handicaps in brackets
Blues -7.5 (-12.5) v Brumbies - It might come back a point or 2 but accept my line was off
Points 57.5
Fijian Drua +7.5 (+9.5) v Chiefs
Points 62.5
Moana Pasifika +10.5 (+10.5) v Hurricanes - from +12.5 I understand
Points 63.5
Waratahs -7.5 (-8.5) v Western Force
Points 54.5
Crusaders -8.5 (-6.5) v Reds
Points 57.5
HANDICAP PROJECTIONS AND OUTRIGHT BETTING
Posted 02 March 16h37
The Highlanders over 36.5 point play will haunt me for some time and I still cannot believe they didn't add to their 31 half time points. Overall a poor weekend for the blog although winners in the Hurricanes and Force games at least eased the pain.
Table after Week 3
Here is the latest outright betting
- Chiefs – 17/10 (was 2/1)
- Blues – 13/5 (was 11/4)
- Crusaders – 13/2 (was 6/1)
- Reds – 17/2 (was 9/1)
- Hurricanes – 9/1 (was 17/2)
- Brumbies – 11/1 (was 10/1)
- Waratahs – 11/1 (was 11/1) (no change)
- Fijian Drua – 40/1 (was 33/1)
- Highlanders – 40/1 (was 33/1)
- Western Force – 50/1 (was 40/1)
- Moana Pasifika – 250/1 (was 250/1) (no change)
Here are my Handicap Projections for week 4
Blues -7.5 v Brumbies
Fijian Drua +7.5 v Chiefs
Moana Pasifika +10.5 v Hurricanes
Waratahs -7.5 v Western Force
Crusaders -8.5 v Reds
