Wales host Australia in Cardiff in Sunday's international rugby action, the Welsh have had a miserable 2024 whilst the Wallabies come into the game on the back of an excellent win over England.
Wales v Australia, Sunday 17th November, Cardiff, KO 18:10 (South African time)
Referee: James Doleman (NZR)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (RFU), Angus Mabey (NZR)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (SARU)
Weather Forecast – Cardiff (only applicable if roof is open)
Wales:
Wales have had a terrible year and last weeks 24-19 home defeat to Fiji, a game they they led 14-3 at one stage, was a tenth straight loss.
They now renew rivalry with the Wallabies who beat them twice in Australia in July, 25-16 in the first test and 36-28 in the second. Wales also took on South Africa in a one off test at Twickenham in he middle of this year and an understrength side finished well beaten 41-13.
In the Six Nations early in 2024 Wales finished bottom of the log. They lost all of their matches; at home to Scotland (27-26), to England at Twickenham (16-14), to Ireland in Dublin (31-7), at home to France (45-24) and finally at home to Italy (24-21).
Australia:
Australia went into last week's clash with England at Twickenham very much the underdogs. They were given around 12.5 points start on the bookmakers main handicap line but they didn't need any of it as a late try from Max Jorgensen sealed a 42-37 win. The Wallabies conceded the first 12 points of the game but led 20-18 at the break and they refused to buckle when the lead changed hands again. Wright, Wilson, Williams and Kelleway also scored tries before Jorgensen had his magic moment.
The Wallabies Rugby Championship campaign delivered just the 1 win and 5 defeats and they finished with the wooden spoon. They started that tournament with back to back losses away to the Springboks (33-7 and 30-12) before heading to Argentina where they won (20-19) in Round 3 before suffering a 67-27 hiding a week later. Their final 2 matches saw them edged out 31-28 at home to the All Blacks and they lost the return in New Zealand 33-13.
Team News
Wales: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Blair Murray, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Ellis Bevan, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Jack Morgan, 6 James Botham, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Archie Griffin, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Gareth Thomas.
Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Christ Tshiunza, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Sam Costelow, 23 Eddie James
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Max Jorgensen, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Seru Uru, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
Recent Head to Head
Prior to the Wallabies 2-0 series win in July the most recent meeting came in the RWC23 pool stage in France and a 40-6 win for Wales saw Australia fail to make it to the knockout rounds.
The Betting
Updated 16 November 00h44
Wales +6.5 points at 9/10
Australia -5.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Posted 16 November 00h44
This handicap opened Wales +1.5 and I wasn’t surprised to see money come for Australia given I capped the game at +8.5. The line seems to have stabilised around -5.5 or -6.5 depending on where you punt and the Total Points Line is 49.5.
I think we are going to get points in this game, but my preference is for Australia points and I am going to back them to score at least 28 points.
BET: 4 Units, Australia over 27.5 points at 10/11 at WSB
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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