Saturday's Rugby World Cup final between New Zealand and South Africa takes place at the Stade de France, Paris and the betting markets suggest we are in for a nail biting contest
New Zealand v South Africa, Saturday 28th October, Paris, KO 21:00 (South African time)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (RFU), Matthew Carley (RFU)
TMO: Tom Foley (RFU)
Weather Forecast - Paris
New Zealand:
The All Blacks were involved in the first of the semi finals against Argentina at this venue last Friday. They were 17.5 points favourites on the main handicap line and they smashed it with a 44-6 victory. New Zealand scored 3 tries in the first half to lead 20-6 at half time and they added 4 more in a one sided second half. Will Jordan scored a hat trick of tries and Frizell grabbed 2.
New Zealand edged a classic quarter final with Ireland at this venue 28-24. They were quickly 13-0 in front but their lead was reduced to a single point (18-17) by half time. Will Jordan gave the All Blacks some daylight with a try early in the second half and with some heroic defending New Zealand held on.
The All Blacks finished as runners up to France in Pool A. After suffering a first ever RWC pool stage defeat in their opening match of the tournament to host nation France, 27-13 the All Blacks thrashed Namibia 71-3 and then dished out an even bigger hiding to Italy, 96-17 before a 73-0 win over Uruguay in their final pool match.
South Africa:
The Boks knockout round matches have both gone right to the wire. They were were 13.5 point favourites on the main handicap line for their semi final match up with England at this venue last Saturday and they came out on top 16-15. England had led 12-6 at half time and 15-6 with 20 minutes to go before an RG Snyman try on 69 minutes was converted by Pollard and a penalty from Pollard on 78 minutes saw South Africa edge it.
The Boks went into their semi final clash with host nation France as marginal underdogs and after a frantic first half saw both sides score 3 tries it was France who led 22-19 at the break. A French penalty made it 25-19 to the hosts but Etzebeth returned from the bin to score a try converted by Pollard who then landed a monster penalty and the Boks were 4 points in front. France reduced the deficit to 1 point but South Africa held on to win 29-28.
South Africa were drawn in the toughest pool and they finished as runners up to Ireland. Their first action came against Scotland and they came through with an 18-3 victory. They went on to thrash Romania (76-0) and and Tonga (49-18) but in between those victories they were edged out 13-8 by Ireland in another gripping contest.
South Africa now renew rivalry with New Zealand whom they beat 35-7 in a warm up for this tournament at Twickenham. They played much of the game with a numerical advantage and dominated throughout.
RWC Finals History
New Zealand's last RWC title came in in 2017 when they beat Australia 34-17 at Twickenham.
The All Blacks were also crowned champions when they hosted the tournament in 2011 and as co-hosts in 1987 beating France in both of those finals.
South Africa are defending champions having beaten England 32-12 in Japan 2019.
The Boks also won the title in France in 2007 when they again beat England in the final 15-6 and they beat the All Blacks 15-12 in South Africa in a memorable final which went into extra time back in 1995.
Recent Head to Head
2023 RWC (WU) Twickenham New Zealand 7-35 South Africa
2023 RC Auckland New Zealand 35-20 South Africa
2022 RC Johannesburg South Africa 23–35 New Zealand
2022 RC Nelspruit South Africa 26-10 New Zealand
2021 RC Gold Coast (Aus) New Zealand 29-31 South Africa
2021 RC Townsville (Aus) New Zealand 19-17 South Africa
2019 RWC Yokohama New Zealand 23-13 South Africa
2019 RC Wellington New Zealand 16-16 South Africa
Team News
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11. Mark Tele’a, 11 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (captain), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi, (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 RG Snyman, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Jasper Wiese, 23 Willie le Roux
The Betting
27 October 16h35
New Zealand win at 0.92/1 at Hollywood
South Africa +1.5 at 1/1 at Betxchange
To Lift the Cup
New Zealand 8/10
South Africa 21/20
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
25 October 10h05
It would have been hard to imagine the All Blacks starting favourites in this fixture when the World Cup started but the price reflects the fact that they are playing some great rugby and that South Africa's tougher fixture list has them looking a bit tired.
Bookmakers report low volumes on the final to date and while this will pick up for sure it does appear as though the odds setters have got this right.
The points line is 42.5 and there is rain predicted at this point.
I am going to wait for teams to be finalised and will return to post my bet on Thursday or Friday.
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27 October 16h35
The handicap has been steady all week and with rain predicted the points line is 41.5 or 42.5 depending on where you are betting.
I am mulling over an unders play but will wait to see conditions closer to kick off and will post any bet in the forum thread.
The Boks surprised with team selection yet again reverting to a 7-1 bench split for the 2nd time in this World Cup.
As game day approaches I find myself getting more confident about the Boks chances and I am going to put my head down and back the to win it in what may admittedly be a patriotic punt.
BET: 4 units South Africa win at 12/10 at Betxchange
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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