Ireland clash with New Zealand in the Rugby World Cup quarter finals in Paris on Saturday and the betting suggests it will be a very close contest
Ireland v New Zealand, Saturday 14th October, Paris, KO 21:00 (South African time)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (England), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Tom Foley (England)
Weather Forecast - Paris
Ireland:
Ireland topped Pool B, the toughest of the groups, with a 100% record, finishing 4 points clear of runners up South Africa with Scotland the tier 1 nation to miss out and Tonga and Romania filled fourth and fifth.
Coming into the final round of pool matches Ireland still had work to do against Scotland to rubber stamp their quarter final place and they were more than equal to the task, coming out on top 36-14 with 4 of their 6 tries arriving in the first half.
Earlier Ireland came through their crunch clash with the Springboks with a 13-8 victory. They were marginal underdogs for what was a titanic battle and after the Boks missed a potential 11 points from the kicking tee Ireland edged it. Ireland thrashed Pool B minnows Romania 82-8 in their opening match and then put Tonga away 59-16 in their second outing.
In the RWC outright betting Ireland are trading at around 3.05/1 to win the tournament with BoyleSports who price them at 0.73/1 to reach the semi finals and
12/10 to make it to the final.
New Zealand:
The All Blacks finished as runners up to France in Pool A with Italy well back in third and Uruguay and Namibia were the also rans.
After suffering a first ever RWC pool stage defeat in their opening match of the tournament to host nation France, 27-13 in Paris, the All Blacks rattled up a barrage of points. In their second outing they thrashed Namibia 71-3 and then dished out an even bigger hiding to Italy, 96-17 before a 73-0 win over Uruguay in their final pool match.
They now take aim at Ireland who beat them 2-1 in a 3 match series in New Zealand in July 2022. New Zealand did thrash Ireland in an RWC 2019 quarter final, 46-14 in Japan but they bowed out to England in the semi finals.
New Zealand are now trading at around 3.75/1 to claim a fourth RWC title with BoyleSports and they are priced at 14/10 to reach the final and 11/10 to reach the semi's.
Recent Head to Head
Jul 22 INT Wellington New Zealand 22-32 Ireland
Jul 22 INT Dunedin New Zealand 12-23 Ireland
Jul 22 INT Auckland New Zealand 42-19 Ireland
Nov 21 INT Dublin Ireland Ireland 29-20 New Zealand
Oct 2019 RWC Japan New Zealand 46-14 Ireland
Team News
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Johnny Sexton (captain), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Iain Henderson, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 David Kilcoyne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Jimmy O’Brien
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (captain), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown
The Betting
Average early show, subject to change
Ireland -1.5 points at 9/10
New Zealand +2.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
This game is exactly where I handicapped it at -1.5 Ireland.
The Irish were impressive against the Boks and their 1st half performance against Scotland was one of the best I have ever seen. They make so few mistakes, are organised on defence and have the ability to cut defences open.
The All Blacks are one side who have the ability to test their defence and this is going to be a fascinating battle.
The points line on this game has been set at 44.5 and while I am generally an unders player in these knock out matches these teams could potentially serve up a classic high scoring game and I am going to steer clear.
I will wait for team news (Ireland are waiting on a few injuries) and will post my suggested bet(s) later in the week.
14 October 11h25
I am still undecided on a match winner here and have already changed my Superbru pick multiple times. I am starting to lean towards New Zealand but for now a speculative halftime/fulltime play.
I expect a strong start from Ireland but feel the fresher New Zealand team may fight back to win in the 2nd half.
Stay close to our forum thread where I will post any additional bets and other punters share their plays
BET: 2 units Ireland/New Zealand HT/FT at 13/2 at WSB
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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