The final match in Pool A of the Rugby World Cup comes from Lyon on Friday where host nation France take on an Italian side who will need to cause a huge upset to avoid being eliminated.
France v Italy, Friday 6th October, Lyon, KO 21:00 (South African time)
Referee: Karl Dickson (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Luke Pearce (RFU), Craig Evans (WRU)
TMO: Marius Jonker (SARU)
Weather Forecast - Lyon
France:
France sat out last weekend but retained top spot in the group with 13 points, 3 ahead of the All Blacks and their opponents here Italy. The picture will change following New Zealand's clash with Uruguay which takes place 24 hours before this match but unless France lose here they will be heading for a quarter final showdown with either Ireland, South Africa or Scotland.
In their most recent outing France thrashed Namibia 96-0, smashing a minus handicap of 69.5 points but the big story to emerge was the facial injury suffered by key man Antoine Dupont and at the time of writing it was unclear as to when he would be available for selection.
France made wholesale changes for their second round clash with Uruguay and even though they started as 52.5 point favourites they were made to work much harder than expected before eventually coming out on top 27-12.
France took on New Zealand in the opening match of the tournament in Paris. It was billed as the pivotal game of this pool and was priced up as near enough “choice” by the bookmakers but Les Bleus delighted the home crowd with a well deserved 27-13 victory.
France are now trading at around 3.75/1 to claim the RWC title with BoyleSports and they are priced at 14/10 to reach the final and even money to reach the semi's.
Italy:
After starting with 2 bonus point wins from their clashes with Namibia (52-8) and Uruguay (37-17) Italy got the ultimate reality check when they came up against the All Blacks at this venue last week. They were given around 26.5 point start on the handicap but crashed and burned 96-17, conceding all of 14 tries.
Italy's most recent clash with France came in the Six Nations early this year and Italy threatened a surprise before going down 29-24 in the opening round in Rome.
Italy have yet to make it beyond the pool stage in the RWC but unless there is a mighty upset in Thursday's match they will have to win here (and pick up 3 more log points than France) to break that trend.
Team News
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Charles Ollivon (captain), 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Thibaud Flament, 4 Cameron Woki, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Cyril Baille.
Replacements: 16 Pierre Bourgarit, 17 Reda Wardi, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Francois Cros, 21 Baptiste Couilloud, 22 Yoram Moefana, 23 Melvyn Jaminet
Italy: 15 Ange Capuozzo, 14 Pierre Bruno, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Paolo Garbisi, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Pietro Ceccarelli, 2 Hame Faiva, 1 Simone Ferrari.
Replacements: 16 Marco Manfredi, 17 Federico Zani, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 David Sisi, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Alessandro Fusco, 22 Luca Morisi, 23 Lorenzo Pani
The Betting -
France -26.5 points at 9/10
Italy +26.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
There has been some support or Italy on the handicap with the opening +28.5 now +26.5 but having handicapped this game at 28.5 I am battling to find value.
I have little doubt that France can beat this handicap but my concern is that once the job is done they could step off the gas allowing the Italians in for some consolation points.
The way to combat this is to focus on the halftime markets.
France have named a strong side and I think they are going out there to get the job done early before pulling their top players off in the 2nd half. I think they will take the early 3 pointers and ba a try or 2 in the 1st half and will back them to score 20 points or more.
Stay close to our forum thread where I will post any additional bets and other punters share their plays
BET: 5 units France over 19.5 1st Half Points at 9/10 at WSB
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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