Saturday's Rugby World Cup semi final sees South Africa start as the bookmakers favourites for their clash with England at the Stade de France Paris.
England v South Africa, Saturday 21st October, Paris, KO 21:00 (South African time)
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant Referees: Andrew Brace (Ireland), Paul Williams (New Zealand)
TMO: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)
Weather Forecast - Paris
England:
England (7.5 point favourites on the handicap line) had to overcome a highly spirited Fiji side in their quarter final in Marseille to run out winners 30-24. An early try from Tuilagi, another from Marchant and a number of penalties from Farrell had England 24-10 to the good heading into the final quarter when Fiji hit back with two quick tries to level the scores at 24-24. A drop goal from Farrell on 72 minutes put England back in front and the same player landed his fifth penalty just before then end to send England through.
England topped Pool D with a 100% record. George Ford was responsible for all of their points (6 penalties and 3 drop goals) in their opening round 27-10 victory over Argentina before they came through their clash with Japan with a 35-12 victory. England then demolished Chile 71-0 to seal qualification but they were given a huge scare in their final pool match against Samoa where a late try saw them edge home 18-17.
England are trading at around 12/1 to win the tournament with BoyleSports
(Note, outright odds may change after Friday's semi final between Argentina and New Zealand)
South Africa:
South Africa's 29-28 quarter final victory over France at this venue will live long in the memory. The Boks went into that clash as marginal underdogs and a frantic first half saw both sides score 3 tries with Arendse, De Allende and Kolbe crossing for the Boks but it was France who led 22-19 at the break. A French penalty made it 25-19 to the hosts but Etzebeth returned from the bin to score a try converted by Pollard who then landed a monster penalty and the Boks were 4 points in front. France reduced the deficit to 1 point but South Africa held on.
South Africa were drawn in the toughest pool and they finished as runners up to Ireland. Their first action came against Scotland and they came through with an 18-3 victory. The Boks went on to thrash Romania 76-0 and they also beat Tonga 49-18 but in between those victories they were edged out 13-8 by Ireland.
South Africa now renew rivalry with England whom they beat 32-12 in the RWC 2019 final in Japan and as far as the outright betting is concerned, at the time of writing they are trading as 9/10 favourites to win the tournament with BoyleSports.
BoyleSports Price Boosts
C Kolbe to score the first Try of the match v England Was 8.0 Now 10.5
E Etzebeth to be Man of the Match| Was 8.00 Now 13.00
Click here for all of the BoyleSports price boosts
Recent Head to Head
In last years November international at Twickenham South Africa were 27-13 winners whilst in November 2021 England edged out the Boks 27-26, also at Twickenham
When the teams met in the final of 2019 RWC South Africa won it, 32-12 in Yokohama.
When the teams met in the final of 2007 RWC South Africa won 15-6 in Paris
Team News
England: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Jonny May, 13 Joe Marchant, 12 Manu Tuilagi, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 Owen Farrell (captain), 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Tom Curry, 6 Courtney Lawes, 5 George Martin, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Jamie George, 1 Joe Marler.
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Billy Vunipola, 21 Danny Care, 22 George Ford, 23 Ollie Lawrence.
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi, (captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Faf de Klerk, 22 Handre Pollard, 23 Willie le Roux
The Betting
19 October 14h45
England +13.5 points at 9/10
South Africa -13.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
18 October 18h50
This handicap opened SA -10.5 and the money came for the Boks with the line now sitting at -13.5. The points line is currently 43.5. I am holding fire until I have seen the teams before having a bet but caught up with Hilton Hasson a long time mate and Director at World Sports Betting to see where the punters are leaning "We are still seeing support for South Africa at the -13.5 level but interestingly there has been pretty strong activity on England to win the match outright (currently 5/1) - it appears to be a mix of price value and concern that SA might be a bit flat after that quarter final" - click here to open an account at WSB and take advantage of their R15k matched opening deposit offer - T&Cs apply
19 October 14h50
The betting is stable and it is time to make a call.
First up it looks likely to be a wet game. The points line is 43.5 and I am tempted by unders but prefer the total tries line at under 4.5. I am expecting both points to take their 3's and am hoping for a tense and slight start hopefully with exchange of penalties.
I also think we see a drop goal in this game. England have shown they value the drop and only last year Willemse was naging them over at Twickenham. Even Colby had a go from the base of the ruck last week. There is 7/2 we get a drop goal and I really like that one.
Stay close to our forum thread where I will post any additional bets and other punters share their plays
BET: 4 units under 4.5 tries at 10/11 at Sportingbet*
BET: 2 units Successful Drop Goal YES at 7/2 at Sportingbet*
*If you don’t have a Sportingbet account please use this link to open one
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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