In this blog Brent Graham has a go at projecting the week 16 handicaps and he also looks at the latest outright betting, the log, the forecast weather and towards the end of the week a bet in each match.
SWEATING THE UNDERS
Posted 31 May 08h41
The unders arrives in Eden Park but although we had a score in hand at the end it certainly wasn't as comfortable as it looked and was a proper sweat.
Top stuff from the Blues and Moana now need a bonus point win to qualify. Deep down they must know they are gone and I am quite happy with the Canes -11.5 at this point..
Points now 61.5 from 63.5 possibly due to fairly stiff winds.
REDS V FIJIAN DRUA
Posted 30 May 22h06
This is a tough game to call with the Drua out of the playoff race.
Points overs at 56.5 looks a play but there has been rain in the week and indications are the ground could be cut up.
After some deliberation I am going for the Reds to finish the regular season in style.
BET: 3 units Reds -16.5 at 10/11 at WSB
HURRICANES V MOANA PASIFIKA
Posted 30 May 21h03
I handicaped this game Hurrianes -19.5 which was perhaps a knee jerk reaction to Moana's massive loss to the Chiefs last week.
I get the feeling the Hurricanes are finding form though and Moana have possibly started to decline without the same squad depth.
The points line looks a bit high for me at 63.5 but I won't get involved in that and will back my original instinct and will take Hurricanes on the minus.
BET: 4 units Hurricanes -11.5 at 9/10 at Pokerbet
HEARTBREAK IN CANBERRA
Posted 30 May 20h55
Both bets went down to the wire this morning but while the Chiefs overs arrived in the last minute there are heartbreak in Canberra as the Crusaders grabbed the lead and held on which also ruined the newsletter Friday morning double.
You have to take the good and the bad in this game though and we move on.
BLUES VS WARATAHS
The handicap has moved from Blues -19.5 to -22.5 and although bigger than I expected the Tahs look stretched and I won't get further involved and will sit on the early play of under 58.5 points with the line now 56.5.
The latest weather forecast suggests light rain virtually all day and if you didn't get on the 58.5 u 56.5 ould still be worth an interest.
A FRIDAY DOUBLE
Posted 30 May 07h56
Not alot of betting movement but our Chiefs over 34.5 play has gone 35.5 and the Blues have edged to -20.5. Points in Canes v Moana is 64.5 from 61.5.
The newsletter just went out (click here to get it in your inbox next week) and for those not looking to get heavily involved here is a Friday double
Chiefs over 35.5 at 17/20
Brumbies win incl. overtime at 0.81/1
BET: 2 units at 2.34/1 at Betxchange
BRUMBIES VS CRUSADERS
Posted 29 May 23h15
I capped this game Brumbies -3.5 and I was surprised when they opened +0.5 even touching +1.5.
The money has come for the home team though and I see some -2.5 in places.
After the Waratahs OT win last week I have learnt my lesson (I was on them at 31/20 in regulation) and am going to take a straight win bet on the Brumbies to secure a top 2 spot.
The points line is 54.5 and that looks about right.
If I wasn't on the Brumbies outright I would take some of the Brumbies 1-12 at Betxchange at 21/10
BET: 4 units Brumbies win (incl OT) at 0.81/1 at Betxchange
HIGHLANDERS VS CHIEFS
Posted 29 May 23h01
This handicap opened -13.5 Chiefs and it has been around that level all week, touching -12.5 and -14.5.
The Highlanders played well last week and showed that they want to go out fighting but I think this Chiefs team will be too strong.
The points line under the roof is 56.5 but my play is Chiefs over 34.5. I expect this to be an open game and I think the Chiefs might also keep the score ticking over with an early 3 pointer or 2 as they just need a win here to guarantee top spot. .
BET: 4 units Chiefs over 34.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
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WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND
Here are the current forecasts and links for updates
Friday, 30 May 2025
Highlanders vs Chiefs
Kickoff: 09:05 SAST
Venue: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – stadium covered
ACT Brumbies vs Crusaders
Kickoff: 11:35 SAST
Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra
• Weather Forecast: Cold, temp around 7 degrees, clear
• Humidity: mid 70’s to 80’s
• Forecast sourced at 19h18 on 28 May from timeanddate
Saturday, 31 May 2025
Blues vs NSW Waratahs
Kickoff: 06:35 SAST
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
• Weather Forecast: Mid teens, possible rain
• Humidity: around 70%
• Forecast sourced at 19h26 on 28 May from timeanddate
Hurricanes vs Moana Pasifika
Kickoff: 09:05 SAST
Venue: Sky Stadium, Wellington
• Weather Forecast: Cool and clear, temp in mid teens, watch wind forecast
• Humidity: 60-70%
• Forecast sourced at 19h28 on 28 May from timeanddate
Queensland Reds vs Fijian Drua
Kickoff: 11:35 SAST
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
• Weather Forecast: Showers forecast, temp around 17 degrees
• Humidity: Mid 80’s
• Forecast sourced at 19h30 on 28 May from timeanddate
TEAMS ARE OUT
Posted 28 May 10h01
HIGHLANDERS v CHIEFS FRI 30 MAY: Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin (19:05 SAST)
HIGHLANDERS (1–15): Ethan de Groot (co-c), Jack Taylor, Saula Ma’u, Fabian Holland, Tai Cribb, Te Kamaka Howden, Veveni Lasaqa, Sean Withy, Folau Fakatava, Cam Millar, Taniela Filimore, Timoci Tavatavanawai (co-c), Tanielu Tele'a, Jonah Lowe, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens
Replacements: Soane Vikena, Daniel Lienert-Brown, Sosefo Kautai, Will Stodart, Michael Loft, Adam Lennox, Sam Gilbert, Thomas Umaga-Jensen
CHIEFS (1–15): Jared Proffit, Bradley Slater, Reuben O'Neill, Josh Lord, Tupou Vaa'i, Samipeni Finau, Luke Jacobson (c), Wallace Sititi, Xavier Roe, Damian McKenzie, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Quinn Tupaea, Daniel Rona, Leroy Carter, Shaun Stevenson
Replacements: Samisoni Taukei'aho, Ollie Norris, George Dyer, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Simon Parker, Cortez Ratima, Josh Jacomb, Manasa Mataele
Referee: Ben O'Keeffe
Assistant Referees: Marcus Playle, Jackson Henshaw
TMO: Glenn Newman
ACT BRUMBIES v CRUSADERS FRI 30 MAY: GIO Stadium, Canberra (19:35 SAST)
BRUMBIES (1–15): James Slipper, Billy Pollard, Feao Fotuaika, Nick Frost, Tom Hooper, Rob Valetini, Rory Scott, Tuaina Taii Tualima, Ryan Lonergan, Noah Lolesio, Corey Toole, David Feliuai, Len Ikitau, Andy Muirhead, Tom Wright
Replacements: Lachlan Lonergan, Lington Ieli, Rhys van Nek, Lachlan Shaw, Luke Reimer, Harrison Goddard, Declan Meredith, Ollie Sapsford
CRUSADERS (1–15): George Bower, Codie Taylor (c), Tamaiti Williams, Scott Barrett, Antonio Shalfoon, Ethan Blackadder, Tom Christie, Christian Lio-Willie, Noah Hotham, Rivez Reihana, Sevu Reece, Dallas McLeod, Levi Aumua, Chay Fihaki, Johnny McNicholl
Replacements: George Bell, Lewis Ponini, Seb Calder, Tahlor Cahill, Corey Kellow, Kyle Preston, James O'Connor, Braydon Ennor
Referee: James Doleman
Assistant Referees: Angus Mabey, Fraser Hannon
TMO: Richard Kelly
BLUES v NSW WARATAHS SAT 31 MAY: Eden Park, Auckland (16:35 SAST)
BLUES (1–15): Joshua Fusitu'a, Ricky Riccitelli, Marcel Renata, Patrick Tuipulotu (c), Laghlan McWhannell, Anton Segner, Dalton Papali'i, Hoskins Sotutu, Finlay Christie, Beauden Barrett, Caleb Clarke, AJ Lam, Rieko Ioane, Mark Tele'a, Corey Evans
Replacements: Kurt Eklund, Jordan Lay, Angus Ta'avao, Josh Beehre, Adrian Choat, Sam Nock, Harry Plummer, Cole Forbes
WARATAHS (1–15): Angus Bell, David Porecki, Taniela Tupou, Fergus Lee-Warner, Miles Amatosero, Hugh Sinclair (c), Jamie Adamson, Langi Gleeson, Teddy Wilson, Jack Bowen, Triston Reilly, Joey Walton, Henry O'Donnell, Andrew Kellaway, Lawson Creighton
Replacements: Mahe Vailanu, Tom Lambert, Daniel Botha, Ben Grant, Leafi Talataina, Jack Grant, Tane Edmed, Darby Lancaster
Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant Referees: Paul Williams, George Myers
TMO: Brett Cronan
HURRICANES v MOANA PASIFIKA SAT 31 MAY: SKY Stadium, Wellington (19:05 SAST)
HURRICANES (1–15): Xavier Numia, Jacob Devery, Tyrel Lomax, Zach Gallagher, Hugo Plummer, Devan Flanders, Du'Plessis Kirifi (co-c), Peter Lakai, Cam Roigard, Brett Cameron, Fatafehi Fineanganofo, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Billy Proctor (co-c), Bailyn Sullivan, Ruben Love
Replacements: Raymond Tuputupu, Pouri Rakete-Stones, Pasilio Tosi, Will Tucker, Brad Shields (co-c), Ereatara Enari, Jone Rova, Tjay Clarke
PASIFIKA (1–15): Tito Tuipulotu, Millennium Sanerivi, Feleti Sae-Ta'ufo'ou, Tom Savage, Samuel Slade, Miracle Faiilagi, Ardie Savea (c), Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa, Jonathan Taumateine, Patrick Pellegrini, Solomon Alaimalo, Julian Savea, Lalomilo Lalamilo, Kyren Taumoefolau, Tevita Ofa
Replacements: Samiuela Moli, Abraham Pole, Chris Apoua, Allan Craig, Lotu Inisi, Melani Matavao, Jackson Garden-Bachop, Pepesana Patafilo
Referee: Angus Gardner
Assistant Referees: Matt Kellahan, Graham Cooper
TMO: Glenn Newman
QUEENSLAND REDS v FIJIAN DRUA SAT 31 MAY: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (19:35 SAST)
REDS (1–15): Sef Fa'agase, Richie Asiata, Zane Nonggorr, Josh Canham, Ryan Smith, Joe Brial, Fraser McReight, Harry Wilson, Tate McDermott (c), Tom Lynagh, Tim Ryan, Hunter Paisami, Josh Flook, Lachie Anderson, Jock Campbell
Replacements: Josh Nasser, Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Nick Bloomfield, Angus Blyth, John Bryant, Kalani Thomas, Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, Filipo Daugunu
DRUA (1–15): Haereiti Hetet, Tevita Ikanivere (c), Samuela Tawake, Mesake Vocevoce, Isoa Nasilasila, Etonia Waqa, Motikiai Murray, Kitione Salawa, Philip Baselala, Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula, Taniela Rakuro, Tuidraki Samusamuvodre, Iosefo Masi, Ponipate Loganimasi, Selestino Ravutaumada
Replacements: Zuriel Togiatama, Peni Ravai, Mesake Doge, Joseva Tamani, Elia Canakiavata, Simione Kuruvoli, Inia Tabuavou, Isikeli Rabitu
Referee: Damon Murphy
Assistant Referees: Jordan Way, Jeremy Markey
TMO: James Leckie
BLUES vs WARATAHS - an early bet
Posted 27 May 07h31
The points line is 58.5 and given both teams simply have to win the game it should be played with serious intensity.
I would of put this line at around 55.5 in good conditions but a look ahead at the forecast suggests rain is likely and this is what the Mossman calls a freeroll. Bet now as the line is unlikely (in my opinion) to go up but could well come down if the rain forecast stays or worsens.
BET: 5 units under 58.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
SRP BETTING UPDATE - we have points lines
Posted 27 May 07h21
There has been basically no movement on the handicaps as punters wait for team news. We have total points lines though and wethare links will be up tomorrow.
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Highlanders (+13.5) vs Chiefs - Points 56.5
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Brumbies (+0.5) vs Crusaders - Points 54.5
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Blues (-19.5) vs NSW Waratahs - Points 58.5 (early thoughts are this is an unders)
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Hurricanes (-11.5) vs Moana Pasifika - Points 61.5
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Queensland Reds (-16.5) vs Fijian Drua - Points 56.5
SRP WEEK 16 HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 26 May 08h17
Betxchange handicaps in brakets next to mine
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Highlanders +14.5 (+13.5) vs Chiefs
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Brumbies -2.5 (+0.5) vs Crusaders - I like the Brumbies to win but probably no rush to get on
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Blues -11.5 (-19.5) vs NSW Waratahs - I did not see such a big handicap coming but don't really want to back the Tahs
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Hurricanes -20.5 (-11.5) vs Moana Pasifika- I was well out here, perhaps swayed by Moana pounding at the hands of the Chiefs. I like the -11.5 though
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Queensland Reds -18.5 (-16.5) vs Fijian Drua
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 16 HANDICAP PROJECTIONS
Posted 25 May 16h23
Here are my projected handicaps which will be compared to the bookies lines on Monday morning
I found this a tough week to handicap given varying motivation levels
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Highlanders +14.5 vs Chiefs - Chiefs just need to win to secure top spot
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Brumbies -2.5 vs Crusaders - the battle for 2nd unless the Chiefs are shocked
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Blues -11.5 vs NSW Waratahs - a playoff spot awaits for the winner unless Moana pull off an upset
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Hurricanes -20.5 vs Moana Pasifika- Canes can secure 4th with a win
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Queensland Reds -18.5 vs Fijian Drua - A points will secure 5th for the Reds
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 15 BLOG
Posted 25 May 15h58
We are into the final week of the regular season and to kick us off we take a look at how the blog picks fared last week and the latest table and outright betting.
SRP Week 15 Betting Wrap
Crusaders 15 Highlanders 12, handicap started -16.5, BLOG PICK Highlanders under 21.5 points arrived but our early 1 unit acca at 15/1 went out on the Crusaders -14.5
Reds 27 Hurricanes 31, handicap started Reds -0.5, BLOG PICK Hurricanes win at 1.12/1, the bet arrived at the end of a thrilling game
Chiefs 85 Moana 7, handicap started Chiefs -18.5, BLOG PICK under 64.5 points looked ok early but was blown away
Force 17 Waratahs 22 (AET), handicap started Force -3.5, BLOG PICK Waratahs win at 1.55/1 was taken with the draw quoted so sadly lost after he Waratahs blew chances in the final 20
SRP Table after Week 15
Chiefs – Played: 13, Points: 46
Crusaders – Played: 13, Points: 45
ACT Brumbies – Played: 13, Points: 43
Hurricanes – Played: 13, Points: 34
Queensland Reds – Played: 13, Points: 33
Moana Pasifika – Played: 13, Points: 28
👉 Top 6 teams qualify for playoffs
Blues – Played: 13, Points: 28
NSW Waratahs – Played: 13, Points: 26
Western Force – Played: 14, Points: 23
Fijian Drua – Played: 13, Points: 20
Highlanders – Played: 13, Points: 20
SRP Outright Betting after Week 15
Here are the latest odds at WSB
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Chiefs – 5/4
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Crusaders – 39/20
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Brumbies – 7/1
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Hurricanes – 15/2
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Blues – 12/1
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Reds – 16/1
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Moana Pasifika – 125/1
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Waratahs – 200/1
