In this blog we take a look back at how we fared in the final round of regular season action and then look ahead to the Qualifying Finals with the latest outright betting, the early handicaps, weather updates and a bet in each game. 

 

 

 

DEAD RUBBER NO MORE 

Posted 07 June 11h16

So much for a dead rubber - the Blues pull off a stunning win (and unders arrives) and now the winner of Brumbies v Hurricanes has a date with the Chiefs in Hamilton. 

I think unders is the play here. 

 

BET: 4 units under 53.5 at 0.98/1 at Betxchange 

 

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BRUMBIES VS HURRICANES
Posted 06 June 22h04

I handicapped the Brumbies -1.5 in my Sunday night exercise and having touched -0.5 it is now -2.5.
The challenge with this game is that both sides are likely to have qualified by kickoff assuming the Chiefs and Crusaders win as the betting suggests they will.
The temptation is to go overs at 53.5 but it looks like fairly constant rain in Canberra and if anything I think it could be an unders play.

If this is something of a dead rubber I think the home team is likely to be trying the hardest although I guess both would prefer the Crusaders over the Chiefs in the semi's. 

I am going to place my bet late on this one. 

 

OFF TO A DECENT START

The Reds unders was never in doubt and I am once again looking at the points markets in Saturdays opener. 

 

CHIEFS VS BLUES
Posted 06 June 13h26
The handicap opened -6.5 Chiefs which was almost right on my mark of -7.5. The line has edged out to -8.5 and I am leaning Chiefs on the minus.
The points line is 53.5 (52.5 in places) and there is some rain expected before kick off.
I think this one could turn into an arm wrestle at some point and unders is the call.

 

BET: 3 units under 53.5 points at 17/20 at Sportingbet

 

CRUSADERS VS REDS

Posted 05 June 22h39

Ok it is time to get the 1st bet down of the weekend. 

Despite capping this game Crusaders -7.5 I find myself leaning towards the home team on the cap. I think they will be better suited by the likely wet conditions and their tight 5 should take ascendency early. 

The points line is 51.5 (some 52.5) and given a fair bit of rain is expected during the day and quite possibly during the game I am leaning unders. 

I prefer Reds unders though 

 

BET: 3 units Reds under 19.5 points at 9/10 at Pokerbet 

 

BETTING UPDATE AND POINTS LINES

Posted 04 June 09h52 

Here is the latest betting in brackets - original lines to the left 

 

Crusaders -11.5 (-13.5) v Reds, Points 52.5 

Chiefs -7.5 (-8.5) v Blues, Points 53.5 

Brumbies -0.5 (-0.5) v Hurricanes, Points 53.5 

 

If the Chiefs and Crusaders win the Brumbies and Hurricanes will be guaranteed a semi-final under this bizarre playoff system that I can only assume was concocted during a rough night in a pub. 

 

 

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST AND LINKS 

Here are the current forecasts with links for updates - it looks like being a cold and quite wet weekend 

 

Crusaders vs Queensland Reds
Kickoff: 09:05 SAST
Venue: Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch
• Weather Forecast: Overcast, chance of showers, temp around 7 degrees
• Humidity: 85% - 90%
• Forecast sourced at 09h14 on 4 June from timeanddate

Chiefs vs Blues
Kickoff: 09:05 SAST
Venue: FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
• Weather Forecast: Partly cloudy, temp around 7 degrees
• Humidity: approx. 75%
• Forecast sourced at 09h12 on 4 June from timeanddate

ACT Brumbies vs Hurricanes
Kickoff: 11:35 SAST
Venue: GIO Stadium, Canberra
• Weather Forecast: Showers forecast before the game, temp around 8 degrees
• Humidity: around 70%
• Forecast sourced at 09h10 on 4 June from timeanddate

 

QUALIFYING FINALS TEAMS 

Posted 4 June 09h39

 

CRUSADERS v REDS FRI 6 JUNE: Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch (09:05 SAST)

CRUSADERS: 1. Tamaiti Williams, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Fletcher Newell, 4. Scott Barrett, 5. Antonio Shalfoon, 6. Ethan Blackadder, 7. Tom Christie, 8. Christian Lio-Willie, 9. Noah Hotham, 10. Rivez Reihana, 11. Sevu Reece, 12. David Havili (c), 13. Braydon Ennor, 14. Chay Fihaki, 15. Will Jordan
Replacements: 16. George Bell, 17. George Bower, 18. Kershawl Sykes-Martin, 19. Tahlor Cahill, 20. Cullen Grace, 21. Kyle Preston, 22. James O'Connor, 23. Dallas McLeod

REDS: 1. Sef Fa'agase, 2. Richie Asiata, 3. Zane Nonggorr, 4. Josh Canham, 5. Ryan Smith, 6. Joe Brial, 7. Fraser McReight, 8. Harry Wilson, 9. Tate McDermott (c), 10. Tom Lynagh, 11. Filipo Daugunu, 12. Hunter Paisami, 13. Josh Flook, 14. Lachie Anderson, 15. Jock Campbell
Replacements: 16. Josh Nasser, 17. Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18. Nick Bloomfield, 19. Angus Blyth, 20. John Bryant, 21. Kalani Thomas, 22. Dre Pakeho, 23. Tim Ryan

Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant Referees: Angus Mabey, Mike Winter
TMO: Richard Kelly

 

CHIEFS v BLUES SAT 7 JUNE: FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton (09:05 SAST)

CHIEFS: 1. Aidan Ross, 2. Samisoni Taukei'aho, 3. George Dyer, 4. Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 5. Tupou Vaa'i, 6. Samipeni Finau, 7. Luke Jacobson (c), 8. Simon Parker, 9. Cortez Ratima, 10. Damian McKenzie, 11. Leroy Carter, 12. Gideon Wrampling, 13. Daniel Rona, 14. Emoni Narawa, 15. Shaun Stevenson
Replacements: 16. Brodie McAlister, 17. Ollie Norris, 18. Reuben O'Neill, 19. Josh Lord, 20. Wallace Sititi, 21. Xavier Roe, 22. Josh Jacomb, 23. Etene Nanai-Seturo

BLUES: 1. Joshua Fusitu'a, 2. Ricky Riccitelli, 3. Marcel Renata, 4. Patrick Tuipulotu (c), 5. Laghlan McWhannell, 6. Adrian Choat, 7. Dalton Papali'i, 8. Hoskins Sotutu, 9. Finlay Christie, 10. Beauden Barrett, 11. Caleb Clarke, 12. AJ Lam, 13. Rieko Ioane, 14. Mark Tele'a, 15. Corey Evans
Replacements: 16. Kurt Eklund, 17. Jordan Lay, 18. Angus Ta'avao, 19. Josh Beehre, 20. Anton Segner, 21. Sam Nock, 22. Harry Plummer, 23. Cole Forbes

Referee: Angus Gardner
Assistant Referees: Damon Murphy, Matt Kellahan
TMO: James Leckie

 

BRUMBIES v HURRICANES SAT 7 JUNE: GIO Stadium, Canberra (11:35 SAST)

BRUMBIES: 1. James Slipper, 2. Billy Pollard, 3. Allan Alaalatoa, 4. Nick Frost, 5. Tom Hooper, 6. Rob Valetini, 7. Rory Scott, 8. Tuaina Taii Tualima, 9. Ryan Lonergan, 10. Noah Lolesio, 11. Corey Toole, 12. David Feliuai, 13. Len Ikitau, 14. Andy Muirhead, 15. Tom Wright
Replacements: 16. Lachlan Lonergan, 17. Lington Ieli, 18. Feao Fotuaika, 19. Lachlan Shaw, 20. Luke Reimer, 21. Harrison Goddard, 22. Declan Meredith, 23. Ollie Sapsford

HURRICANES: 1. Xavier Numia, 2. Asafo Aumua (co-c), 3. Tyrel Lomax, 4. Zach Gallagher, 5. Caleb Delany, 6. Devan Flanders, 7. Du'Plessis Kirifi (co-c), 8. Peter Lakai, 9. Cam Roigard, 10. Brett Cameron, 11. Fatafehi Fineanganofo, 12. Peter Umaga-Jensen, 13. Billy Proctor (co-c), 14. Bailyn Sullivan, 15. Ruben Love
Replacements: 16. Raymond Tuputupu, 17. Tevita Mafileo, 18. Pasilio Tosi, 19. Hugo Plummer, 20. Brad Shields (co-c), 21. Ereatara Enari, 22. Ngatungane Punivai, 23. Callum Harkin

Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant Referees: Jordan Way, Jeremy Markey
TMO: Brett Cronan

 

 

SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC OUTRIGHT BETTING AND EARLY HANDICAPS 

Posted 01 June 16h11 

Knowing the lines would be out early I jotted my handicaps down before I checked the bookies. A comparison of my handicaps and Betxchange in brackets 

 

Crusaders -7.5 (-11.5 ) v Reds - I think this line came out at -12.5 and was suspended for a while 

Chiefs -7.5 (-7.5) v Blues 

Brumbies -1.5 (-0.5) v Hurricanes 

 

Here is the latest outright betting at WSB

 

• Chiefs – 29/20

• Crusaders – 37/20

• Brumbies – 15/2

• Blues – 17/2

• Hurricanes – 17/2

• Reds – 18/1

 

 

SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 16 REVIEW AND STRUCTURE 

Posted 01 June 16h01

 

The regular season is done and the top 6 teams move to the Qualifying Finals in a unique and frankly strange struture. 

Here is an explanation as to how it works:

 

Week 1 – Qualifying Finals

• 1st vs 6th

• 2nd vs 5th

• 3rd vs 4th

• Higher-ranked teams host each fixture

Week 2 – Semi-Finals

• The 3 winners progress

• The highest-ranked losing team (lucky loser) also advances

• Matchups:

  • Highest seed vs lowest remaining

  • Second-highest seed vs next lowest

• Home advantage goes to the higher seed

• The lucky loser drops one seed for this round

Week 3 – Grand Final

 

Here is a review of how the blog featured in week 16  

 

Highlanders 24 v Chiefs 41, handicap Chiefs -13,5 BLOG PICK Chiefs over 34.5 points at 9/10 which arrived on the hooter

Brumbies 31 v Crusaders 33, handicap Crusaders +0.5 BLOG PICK Brumbies win at 8/10 looked good until the last 5 minutes 

Blues 46 v Waratahs 6, handicap Blues -22.5 BLOG PICK Under 58.5 at 9/10 taken early in the week arrived although was under pressure at times

Hurricanes 64 v Moana 12, handicap Hurricanes -11.5 BLOG PICK Hurricanes -11.5 at 9/10 and my only regret was not getting on bigger as like it strong

Reds 52 v Drua 7, handicap Reds -16.5 BLOG PICK Reds -16.5 cruises in to finish a profitable SRP weekend