UFC 318 features a thrilling trilogy bout between two all-time greats in the lightweight division, live from the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans on Sunday the 20th of July. Below, we break down the main event and two additional matchups on the main card from a betting front.
Click here to bet on the full fight card
DUSTIN POIRIER vs MAX HOLLOWAY
Lightweight Main Event – Trilogy Fight
Dustin Poirier, a battle-tested veteran from the USA who’s known for his well-balanced fighting style stands across the octagon this Sunday in what will likely be his retirement fight. He has ample experience in the UFC, having made his debut in 2011 and he currently holds a record of 22 wins with 8 losses and 1 no contest, making him one of the best fighters in lightweight history because of the caliber of opponents he has beaten.
He’s 2-0 against Holloway heading into their final fight and notably won their 2019 war for the interim title by decision. Poirier most recently fought Islam Makhachev for the belt in June 2024, where he fell short, losing the bout via submission in round 5.
Max Holloway, the former featherweight champion from Hawaii, returns to the octagon this weekend aiming to avenge his previous defeats to Poirier. He is known for his insane cardio as well as his high volume striking and has experience within the organization dating back to 2012. In this time, he has fought on 29 occasions, winning 21 while losing the remaining 8.
His most recent action took place in October when he went head-to-head with Ilia Topuria and suffered a round 3 knockout defeat. Prior to that he beat Justin Gaethje in the final second of round 5 to claim the BMF belt.
BETTING – click here to bet
Poirier 2.20
Holloway 1.70
PREDICTION:
This trilogy bout promises to be pure entertainment and while Poirier has historically had Holloway’s number, the Hawaiian’s momentum and recent performances suggest he might turn things around. I am expecting a 5-round war, but I’m leaning towards Holloway to take the victory in a fight-of-the-year contender.
PAULO COSTA vs ROMAN KOPYLOV
Middleweight Main Card Bout
Paulo Costa, the powerful Brazilian striker, started his career under the organization with a clean sheet between 2017 and 2019, winning his first 5 fights in a row, with 4 being by knockout. He then took on Israel Adesanya for the title in 2020, where he was unsuccessful and since then he has stepped in the octagon only 4 times, losing 3 while winning 1.
His latest test was against Sean Strickland when they met in June last year and Costa ended up on the wrong side of a split decision.
Roman Kopylov, fighting out of Russia, is a rising force in the middleweight ranks with a 6-3 record. He possesses a set of heavy hitting hands, picking up 5 knockout wins in his career and he very seldom goes the distance.
He has fought frequently in the last couple of years in his career and is coming off of a late round 3 knockout against Chris Curtis, which took place in January.
BETTING – click here to bet
Costa 2.88
Kopylov 1.44
PREDICTION:
While Costa’s power is always a threat, Kopylov’s striking accuracy and footwork could cause him some early trouble. Despite that I’m taking Costa to get the job done by knockout.
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KEVIN HOLLAND vs DANIEL RODRIGUEZ
Welterweight Main Card Bout
Kevin Holland, known for his flashy style and long reach, enters UFC 318 looking to build on his 2-fight win streak. back into the win column. He has fought a total of 26 times in the UFC over the years and been somewhat inconsistent, winning 15 and losing 10 with the remainder ending in a no contest.
He most recently took on Vincente Luque just over a month ago where he was on good form and claimed a submission victory in round 2, this does however mean his build up camp to this fight is extremely short.
Daniel Rodriguez is an American mixed martial artist who specializes in the field of clean striking, but he can also go the distance when necessary. He possesses a career record of 13 bouts, of which he has won 9 and lost 4.
He went through a rough stage between 2022 and 2024 where he lost 3 consecutive fights, but he has turned things around, winning his last 2 appearances with the latest being by round 3 knockout against Santiago Ponzinibbio in May.
BETTING – click here to bet
Holland 1.18
Rodriguez 5.00
PREDICTION:
This matchup favors Holland on paper, and I see him controlling the range while outlanding Rodriguez, before finishing him in the second round via TKO.
SUGGESTED BETS:
Holloway vs Poirier
Holloway by decision at 2.35
Costa vs Kopylov
Costa by knockout at 4.20
Holland vs Rodriguez
Holland by knockout at 2.88
The above treble works out to a tasty 28.42 – use this code in your bet slip to follow 37175494
Note: All prices are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
