We head into the second round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs on Thursday, with the field battling to secure their place in next week’s season-ending Tour Championship. The stakes are high as only the top 30 in the standings will progress, so we can expect aggressive play and plenty of drama. Below, we look at this week’s tournament from a betting perspective and select 4 players to take on the bookies.
Course
The Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Maryland, plays host to this year’s BMW Championship. This par-71 layout, which also staged the 2021 renewal, measures 7,500 yards (6,858 metres) and features manicured, tree-lined fairways that encourage precision from the tee. Water hazards are in play on just five holes, and while there are numerous strategically placed bunkers both off the tee and guarding the greens, the setup has previously allowed for low scoring. In fact, the winning score here in 2021 was a remarkable 27-under par, underlining that birdies are there to be made.
The bentgrass greens are large and undulating, offering receptive surfaces that reward sharp iron play and confident putting. The fairways are generally generous in width, so while errant drives can still find trouble in the rough or behind trees, aggressive play is often rewarded.
Player Profile:
Caves Valley tends to reward players who can take advantage of scoring opportunities rather than those built purely for grinding out pars. Big hitters can shorten the course and attack with wedges, but elite distance is not essential, plenty of mid-length hitters can contend if they produce accurate approach play and a hot putter. Strong birdie conversion rates, sharp wedge proximity, and the ability to go low across four rounds will be key attributes for success here. Players comfortable in shootout conditions, where 20-under or better is required to win, should be at the top of your shortlist.
Past Winners
2024 Keegan Bradley (United States) -12 1 stroke
2023 Viktor Hovalnd (Norway) -17 2 strokes
2022 Patrick Cantlay (Unites States) -14 1 stroke
2021 Patrick Cantlay (United States) -27 Playoff
2020 John Rahm (Spain) -4 Playoff
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The bookies have points leader Scottie Scheffler as favourite to win yet again this weekend, trading at 3.25. Rory McIlroy returns to the tour after taking a somewhat controversial break last week and is trading at 9.00 for the win while Xander Schauffele is at 19.00.
Betting – Click here to bet
Scottie Scheffler 3.25
Rory McIlroy 9.00
Xander Schauffele 19.00
Tommy Fleetwood 21.00
Ludvig åberg 23.00
Patrick Cantlay 26.00
Justin Thomas 26.00
SELECTIONS:
Justin Rose at 46.00
Rose is coming off a brilliant weekend, having earned a playoff spot against JJ Spaun after 72 holes. The two produced some outstanding golf in the playoff, with Rose eventually emerging victorious to claim the title. He has also posted a 16th-place finish and a 6th-place finish in his two previous starts on tour. With the combination of momentum and experience he brings into this week, he looks well capable of being high on the leaderboard by the end of Sunday.
Justin Rose each way at 46.00
Russell Henley at 36.00
Henley arrives this week in solid form. In his last four starts on tour, he has recorded two 10th-place finishes, a runner-up, and a 17th-place finish, the latter coming at last week’s St. Jude Championship. Currently sitting 6th in the FedEx Cup standings, he will be eager to build on that position heading into next week’s finale.
Russell Henley each way at 36.00
Scottie Scheffler at 3.25
It is rare to see a golfer trading at 3.25 to win such a high-profile tournament, but there is good reason why the bookmakers have Scheffler at that price. He has been dominating world golf this year, collecting two major titles along with several other victories, and consistently putting himself in contention week after week. In his last five starts on tour, he has finished no worse than 8th, and he added to that impressive run with a third-place finish at last week’s St. Jude Championship.
Scottie Scheffler to win at 3.25
Andrew Novak at 81.00
Novak is my rank outsider this week. He rebounded from a missed cut the previous week to post an impressive 6th-place finish at the St. Jude. The 30-year-old secured his breakthrough win earlier in the year when he teamed up with Ben Griffin to claim the Zurich Classic title. Since that victory, he has frequently featured on the upper reaches of leaderboards, and this could be the week he lands his biggest payday yet.
Andrew Novak each way at 81.00
