In this blog we keep an eye on all things betting related ahead of round 4 of the URC.
Bet Leinster v Munster
Posted 24 October 13h34
Bet: 2 units (1–5), Munster under 13.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
Leinster are -15.5 with most bookmakers, with the handicap having hovered between -15.5 and -16.5 throughout the week.
Last season, Leinster went into this fixture as strong favourites but took a hiding on the day. However, that result was something of an anomaly, and Munster have failed to score more than 13 points in four of the last five meetings between the sides.
It is raining heavily in Dublin and looks likely to continue throughout the game. I’m backing the Leinster defence to come up trumps once again and restrict Munster to 13 points or fewer.
I’ve decided not to get involved in Benetton v Glasgow, where Benetton are +7.5 and the total-points line is 46.5.
I’ll see how this afternoon’s and evening’s games go before deciding whether to have a bet in Ospreys v Dragons. The Ospreys are -6.5, while the very low total-points line of 36.5 suggests that biblical conditions are expected.
Bet Stormers v Scarlets
Posted 24 October 13h27
Bet: 2 units (1–5), over 57.5 points at 0.98/1 at World Sports Betting
The Stormers are -22.5 favourites, and the handicap looks quite well set to me.
Conditions should be good in Cape Town, and although this is not a particularly strong fancy, I do think we are going to see points. I’m therefore going to have an overs play at 57.5.
Bet Bulls v Ulster
Posted 24 October 11h16
Bet: 3 units (1–5), Ulster over 3.5 tries at 0.93/1 at PokerBet
The handicap has stabilised at Bulls -15.5 after being as high as -17.5 earlier in the week. The total-points line opened at 67.5 but has shortened by two points to 65.5.
Conditions should be excellent at Loftus, and I like the look of this Ulster team.
After the heartbreak I suffered when going under 73.5 points at the same venue last weekend, I certainly won’t be heading down that route again. Instead, I’m backing Ulster to score four tries or more and secure the try-scoring bonus point.
This will probably be my biggest bet of the day.
Saturday URC weather update
Posted 24 October 09h22
There are five URC matches taking place today, with conditions ranging from hot and dry at Loftus to wet and windy in Ireland and Wales.
Bulls v Ulster – 13:45
It should be a hot afternoon at Loftus, with temperatures of around 29°C at kick-off and potentially reaching 31°C during the match.
Clear skies and no rain are forecast. Winds should be around 10 to 15km/h, so they are unlikely to have a significant impact on the rugby.
The early points line is 67.5
Click on Pretoria for the latest hourly forecast.
Benetton v Glasgow Warriors – 16:00
There may be showers in Treviso during the morning, but conditions are expected to improve before kick-off. It should be around 13°C when the match begins.
A yellow wind warning is in place for the Veneto region during the afternoon, so wind could be a factor, particularly for kicking and the lineouts.
The points line is currently 47.5
Click on Treviso for the latest hourly forecast.
Stormers v Scarlets – 16:00
Conditions should be good at the DHL Stadium, with partly sunny skies, temperatures of around 20°C and no rain currently forecast during the match.
Winds of approximately 20km/h are expected around kick-off and could strengthen slightly during the game. That is worth noting in Cape Town, although the wind should not be severe enough to dominate proceedings.
Click on Cape Town for the latest hourly forecast.
Leinster v Munster – 19:00
Conditions in Dublin look more challenging than initially indicated. Storm Boelo is bringing wet and increasingly windy weather to Ireland, with fresh to strong and gusty winds expected during the evening.
Rain is forecast at various stages throughout the day, with further showers possible around kick-off. Temperatures should be approximately 12°C.
Wind could be a significant factor. Forecasts indicate gusts potentially reaching around 50 to 55km/h, which could make kicking, handling and the lineouts difficult.
Click on Dublin for the latest hourly forecast.
Ospreys v Dragons – 20:00
Rain is expected in Swansea during the afternoon and could continue into the evening. It may ease close to kick-off, but further showers remain possible during the match. Temperatures should be around 15°C.
It is also expected to be breezy, with the wind potentially strengthening as the evening progresses. Given the wider storm system affecting the region, the wind could have some impact and is worth checking again closer to kick-off.
Click on Swansea for the latest hourly forecast.
I’ll be back later with a few Saturday bets (just waiting for all the points lines)
Friday night betting and weather update
Posted 23 October 16h34
All three of tonight’s URC matches kick off at 20:45 South African time. Below is a look at the latest handicaps, total-points lines and expected conditions.
Cardiff v Sharks
Sharks -1.5, total points 47.5
The Sharks opened as slight underdogs, with Cardiff initially -2.5 favourites, but the market has completely turned around. The Durban side are now -1.5 favourites, representing a four-point move from the opening handicap.
The forecast for Cardiff suggests there could be light rain or showers before and during the match. The wind may be the bigger factor, with speeds of around 35 to 40km/h expected close to kick-off.
Connacht v Zebre
Connacht -22.5, total points 50.5
Connacht opened at -18.5, but the money has arrived for the home side, who are now asked to give Zebre a 22.5-point start. That is a significant four-point move since the opening prices were released.
Conditions in Galway are expected to be cloudy and cold, with the temperature around 8°C at kick-off. At this stage, there is no significant rain forecast during the match.
Edinburgh v Lions
Edinburgh -7.5, total points 44.5
Edinburgh opened at -7.5 and were briefly pushed out to -8.5, but the handicap has returned to its opening mark. The total-points line is the lowest of tonight’s three matches at 44.5.
The forecast for Edinburgh looks unpleasant. Rain is expected throughout the afternoon, with light rain or showers likely to continue around kick-off. Temperatures should be around 6°C, with winds of approximately 20 to 25km/h.
I already have Edinburgh -7.5 in the bag, while my other early Friday-night interest is the Cardiff/Sharks half-time/full-time play. I’ll be back if anything else catches my eye before kick-off.
Bet Edinburgh v Lions
Posted 22 October 22h23
Bet: 2.5 units (1–5), Edinburgh -7.5 points at 9/10 at Sportingbet
The Lions acquitted themselves well in Europe last weekend, given the circumstances, but I feel they may be a little flat for this one against a high-flying Edinburgh side.
Edinburgh were somewhat disappointing last weekend, but they may now be focusing all their attention on the URC.
The Admiral and I were quite aligned on this game during last night’s edition of The Handicap. The line has moved out to -8.5 with most of the bookmakers I checked, but Sportingbet still have Edinburgh -7.5 available, so I’m going to get my money down reasonably early.
I will take a look at points lines in the Lions and Sharks games tomorrow.
Bet Cardiff v Sharks
Posted 22 October 22h03
Bet: 0.5 unit (1–5), half-time/full-time Cardiff/Sharks at 6.37/1 at BetOlimp
There has been money for the Sharks, who opened as slight underdogs but have now been backed into -1.5 favourites. I made the Sharks favourites myself but never got on early.
After chatting to The Admiral on last night’s edition of The Handicap, I think this one could go down to the wire. It was mentioned on the show that the Sharks have a strong bench, particularly with two Springbok props among the replacements.
I’m going to follow the bet suggested in the live chat and back Cardiff to lead at half-time, before the Sharks come back to win the match.
Teams announced and markets react
Posted 22 October 19h42
The teams have been announced for Round 4 of the URC, and there have been a couple of notable moves in the handicap markets.
The biggest shift has come in Cardiff, where the home side opened as -2.5 favourites but are now +1.5 underdogs against the Sharks. The Bulls handicap has also shortened by two points, from -17.5 to -15.5 against Ulster.
Below are the latest handicaps, with the opening lines shown in brackets.
Get The Admirals thoughts live at 21h00 in THE HANDICAP
Cardiff +1.5 (-2.5) v Sharks
Edinburgh -8.5 (-7.5) v Lions
Connacht -18.5 (-18.5) v Zebre
Bulls -15.5 (-17.5) v Ulster
Stormers -22.5 (-21.5) v Scarlets
Benetton +7.5 (+7.5) v Glasgow Warriors
Leinster -16.5 (-15.5) v Munster
Ospreys -7.5 (-7.5) v Dragons
URC Round 4 early handicaps
Posted 20 October 06h37
The bookmakers have released their opening handicaps for Round 4. Below are the early lines, with my projections shown in brackets.
Cardiff -2.5 v Sharks (my projection: Cardiff +4.5)
Connacht -18.5 v Zebre (my projection: Connacht -18.5)
Edinburgh -7.5 v Lions (my projection: Edinburgh -6.5)
Bulls -17.5 v Ulster (my projection: Bulls -15.5)
Benetton +7.5 v Glasgow Warriors (my projection: Benetton +6.5)
Stormers -21.5 v Scarlets (my projection: Stormers -15.5)
Leinster -15.5 v Munster (my projection: Leinster -11.5)
Ospreys -7.5 v Dragons (my projection: Ospreys -7.5)
The biggest difference of opinion is in Cardiff, where I made the Sharks 4.5-point favourites, but the bookmakers are currently Cardiff -2.5.
I am also well below the market in the Stormers game, having projected -15.5 compared with the opening -21.5, while I made Leinster four points shorter than the bookmakers have them against Munster.
I was spot on with Connacht -18.5 and Ospreys -7.5. There will be no early action from me, and I’ll wait for team news and further markets before getting involved.
URC Round 4 Handicap Projections
Posted Oct 19 07h20
Here are my handicap projections for Round 4. I will compare these with the bookies lines later today.
Cardiff +4.5 v Sharks
Connacht -18.5 v Zebre
Edinburgh -6.5 v Lions
Bulls -15.5 v Ulster
Stormers -15.5 v Scarlets
Benetton +6.5 v Glasgow Warriors
Leinster -11.5 v Munster
Ospreys -7.5 v Dragons
I have a feeling I will be well out on a few of these
Click here for the round 3 review
Table update
Edinburgh now top the table with 14 points, one ahead of Glasgow Warriors.
The Bulls and Stormers occupy third and fourth place respectively, with both teams on 11 points, while the Sharks are a further point behind on 10.
Cardiff, the Lions and Dragons complete the top eight, with all three sides on nine points. The table remains extremely congested at this early stage of the season, with Munster sitting just outside the playoff places, also on nine points.
Pre-season favourites Leinster have climbed to tenth, but remain six points behind leaders Edinburgh.
Round 4 fixtures
Friday 23 October
Cardiff v Sharks – 20:45 SAST, Cardiff Arms Park, Cardiff
Connacht v Zebre – 20:45 SAST, Dexcom Stadium, Galway
Edinburgh v Lions – 20:45 SAST, Hive Stadium, Edinburgh
Saturday 24 October
Bulls v Ulster – 13:45 SAST, Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Stormers v Scarlets – 16:00 SAST, DHL Stadium, Cape Town
Benetton v Glasgow Warriors – 16:00 SAST, Stadio Monigo, Treviso
Leinster v Munster – 19:00 SAST, Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Ospreys v Dragons – 20:00 SAST, St Helen’s, Swansea
I’ll be back on Monday morning, with my handicap projections for the weekend.
