We may already be 14 matches into Super Rugby 2019 but I have only placed a couple of bets.  The reason for this is I have been involved with kids’ sports and parties and frankly I just haven’t been able to watch much rugby. 

The good news is that this has forced me to be selective and having nailed the Bulls to beat the Stormers by 4 points or more in week 1, I followed that up with the Crusaders to win by 9 or more against the Hurricanes, a bet that arrived comfortably. 

Looking at some of the other results I found myself quite grateful that I have had all this extra mural activity to divert my attention because there have been a number of games where I think I would have lost a packet.  I certainly didn’t see the Brumbies massive victory over the Chiefs coming and I doubt that many punters did.  The Stormers come from behind win against the Lions was also a shock to the system, but fortunately I took no financial loss and only lost a SuperBru point.

Talking with fellow punters in the Goodforthegame Forum, it is apparent that team selection is going to be critical given New Zealand rugby’s strict guidelines as to how much game time they would like their star players to have.  This has resulted in punters looking at how many minutes the top players have chalked up and the general consensus is that from this week, All Blacks will either be rested or at the very least pulled off early in the game so as to fit in with those requirements. 

This creates two things, firstly a potential punting mine field as you may get involved in betting purely on current form only to find out that some of the star players in your team are rested. But at the same time for those who are prepared to put in the research it does open up opportunities to take on the bookmakers who price up early, perhaps not understanding all the team selection issues.  I, of course, prefer to take the latter route and will be looking to get more involved as the tournament wears on and school holidays approach, but one thing for sure is you should tread carefully when betting on Super Rugby in a World Cup year.

A quick shout out to my guests on the Handicap Rugby Betting Show every Thursday night, they have been absolutely on fire, so make sure you find us on YouTube every Thursday night at 9.

Twitter: @BrentGraham

 
This article was written for the CitiGaming supplement of the Citizen Newspaper and was published on the 28th of February 2019.

Brent Graham is a blogger on www.goodforthegame.co.za and sends a  free weekly e-mail list just CLICK HERE to register