There are two crucially important English Premier League matches taking place on Monday and Tuesday and we take a look at each of them from a betting angle.
MONDAY
NEWCASTLE UNITED v ARSENAL
Newcastle are 14th on the log and have slumped to back-to-back defeats after having won 4 matches on the trot. Those losses have been 5-0 away at Manchester City and 1-0 at home to Liverpool, the top two teams on the table. Newcastle’s recent home record is strong and before the Liverpool defeat they had won 4 on the trot.
Arsenal are 5th on the log, 2 points behind Tottenham who have played a game more and they can go into 4th with a victory here. They had won 4 matches in a row before running into Tottenham last week when they lost 3-0 away from home and they have lost 3 and won 2 of their last 5 away matches.
Looking at goal scoring stats Newcastle have played 18 matches at home with a 50% split of over and under 2.5 goals while Arsenal have played 18 games on the road with 11 of the games delivering you a profit had you backed over 2.5 goals. 4 of the last 5 Arsenal away matches have reached the 3 goal mark.
Arsenal won the reverse fixture 2-0 at home, their 7th successive League victory over Newcastle.
BETTING – Click here to bet
Newcastle 16/5
Draw 28/10
Arsenal 17/20
Suggested Bet: Arsenal win at 17/20
The Gunners have an excellent record over Newcastle, but of the two sides they have more to play for and I am betting on them to get the 3 points they need to get into the Top 4 and have their destiny of a Top 4 finish in their own hands on the last day of the season.
TUESDAY
SOUTHAMPTON v LIVERPOOL
This match pits 15th place Southampton up against 2nd place Liverpool who are 4 points behind Manchester City with a game in hand. The equation for Liverpool is simple they must win this match and hope that Manchester City drop points against Aston Villa in their last game of the season.
Southampton have been in poor form of late with just 1 win in their last 10 games and they are coming off back-to-back defeats away at Brentford 3-0 and at home to Crystal Palace by 2-1. Their recent home record has been poor with 4 losses and 1 victory in their last 5.
Liverpool were in action on Saturday winning the FA Cup Final on penalties against Chelsea and they have only lost 2 matches all season, winning 4 and drawing 1 of their last 5. Looking at their away form both of their defeats this season have come on the road, but their last 5 away games have seen them win 4 and draw 1.
Southampton home games have been low scoring this season averaging 2.4 goals each with only 7 of the 18 matches delivering you a profit had you backed over 2.5 goals. Liverpool away games averaged 3.3 goals each with 12 of the 18 matches reaching the 3 goal mark.
Liverpool hammered Southampton 4-0 at home earlier in the season, but Southampton won this fixture 1-0 last season.
BETTING – Click here to bet
Southampton 6/1
Draw 9/2
Liverpool 4/10
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Liverpool (-1.5) at 1/1
For this bet to win we need Liverpool to win by more than a goal and had City beaten West Ham on Sunday I would’ve not been that confident, but given Liverpool are still in the title race, if only just, I think they will do the business and make short work of a Southampton side in very poor form and with little to play for.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
