The United Rugby Championship (URC) continues this weekend with action taking place from the 28th of February to the 1st of March. In this blog Brent Graham shares early thoughts and projected handicaps, highlights what he considers to be early value and provides a bet on each game.
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CONNACHT v BENETTON
Posted 01 March 16h30
This handicap opened Connacht -12.5 and there is now generally -11.5 on offer.
Connacht have an excellent home record against Benetton and with the visitors the hardest hit by 6 Nations call ups I am looking for a home win by 12 or more.
BET: 3 units Connacht -11.5 at 19/20 at Hollywoodbets
GLASGOW WARRIORS v OSPREYS
Posted 01 March 16h30
The money has come for the Ospreys on the handicap and they are +11.5 from an opening call of +14.5.
Both of these sides have done well without their 6 Nations players and having initially been looking at a comfortable home win I must say the Ospreys money has got me thinking.
I am going to go back the home team to win but by 12 points or less.
The points line is 45.5 and although it looks clear and I am leaning overs I will stick with the 1-12.
BET: 2 units Glasgow by 1-12 points inclusive at 35/20 at Betxchange
ULSTER v SCARLETS
Posted 01 March 09h06
Ulster have a couple of players back and I think they can do the business against the Scarlets.
The handicap is Ulster -7.5 from an opening call of -6.5 and the points line is 44.5.
It is the points market where I am settling on a bet and i like Ulster to score at least 26 points.
BET: 3 units Ulster over 25.5 points at 17/20 at Hollywoodbets
LEINSTER v CARDIFF
Posted 01 March 08h57
The handicap has been stable at -18.5 Leinster all week and the points line is 54.5.
Conditions look good at the Aviva but the handicap is my focus.
Leinster are missing loads of players and as much depth as they have I think the Cardiff team selected can beat the handicap.
BET: 3 units Cardiff +18.5 at 19/20 at Hollywoodbets
BULLS v STORMERS
Posted 01 March 08h40
BET: 4 units Stormers over 19.5 at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
A FRIDAY NIGHT PROFIT
Posted 01 March 07h56
In amongst the Super Rugby gloom the overs landed at Munster for a Friday night profit.
I will be taking a look at todays games now and have posted final thoughts around points lines in the Lions v Sharks preview
FRIDAY NIGHT
Posted 28 Feb 11h44
ZEBRE v DRAGONS
This handicap opened -6.5 Zebre and has settled at the -8.5 level.
The total points line is 44.5 and although there is some rain expected I am tempted by the overs.
With 2 Friday night games to choose from I am going to sit this one out and will have a bet on the Munster game.
MUNSTER v EDINBURGH
This handicap opened -12.5 Munster and has been backed into -9.5.
I am not getting involved in the handicap but on what looks likely to be a cold but rain free night I am going overs on points.
BET: 3 units over 45.5 points at 9/10 at Pokerbet
WEATHER LINKS FOR WEEK 11
Posted 27 Feb 08h44
The markets have been stable over the last 48 hours as we wait for team news.
Below are the weather links and current forecast (times are in South Africa)
Zebre v Dragons, Friday 21h35 - Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi, Parma (Grass) - cool, humid and likely rain
Munster v Edinburgh, Friday 21h35 - Thomond Park, Limerick (Hybrid) - cold but clear this game is being played in Cork - apologies link will be updated - Virgin Media Park, Cork (3g) - cold but clear
Lions v Sharks, Saturday 14h30 - Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg (Grass) - warm, humid and rain forecast
Bulls v Stormers, Saturday 17h00 - Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria (Grass) - warm with some rain forecast
Leinster v Cardiff, Saturday 17h00 - Aviva Stadium (Hybrid) - Cold, cloudy, small chance of rain
Ulster v Scarlets, Saturday 19h15 - Kingspan Stadium (3G Artificial) - cold, humid and possible mist
Connacht v Benetton, Saturday 21h35 - Dexcom Stadium, Galway (Synthetic) - cold, cloudy, no rain forecast
Glasgow v Ospreys, Saturday 21h35 - Scotstoun Stadium (Synthetic) - cold but looks clear
HANDICAPS STABLE
Posted 25 Feb 07h35
Punters not seeing alot of early value and there are no significant line movements to report.
My early pick of the Sharks has not budged.
WEEK 12 HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 24 Feb 15h58
Betxchange are out and their are in brackets next to mine
Munster -11.5 (-12.5) v Edinburgh
Zebre -4.5 (-6.5) v Dragons
Lions +4.5 (-2.5) v Sharks
Leinster -16.5 (-18.5) v Cardiff
Bulls -6.5 (-12.5) v Stormers
Ulster -8.5 (-6.5) v Scarlets
Glasgow -12.5 (-14.5) v Ospreys
Connacht -9.5 (-12.5) v Benetton
Interesting the big differences are in the SA games and I think an early play is called for.
BET: 5 units Sharks win at 15/10 at WSB
PROJECTED HANDICAPS AND OUTRIGHT BETTING UPDATE
Posted 22 Feb 22h23
It is always tough to handicap these URC fixtures during the 6 Nations but here goes
Munster -11.5 v Edinburgh
Zebre -4.5 v Dragons
Lions +4.5 v Sharks
Leinster -16.5 v Cardiff
Bulls -6.5 v Stormers
Ulster -8.5 v Scarlets
Glasgow -12.5 v Ospreys
Connacht -9.5 v Benetton
Here is the latest log (from Sofa Score) and outright betting (WSB)
- Leinster – 8/15
- Blue Bulls – 11/2
- Glasgow Warriors – 13/2
- Munster – 9/1
- The Sharks – 9/1
- Stormers – 33/1
- Benetton Treviso – 50/1
- Lions – 65/1
- Edinburgh Rugby – 66/1
- Connacht Rugby – 80/1
- Cardiff Rugby – 150/1
- Ulster Rugby – 200/1
- Scarlets – 250/1
- Ospreys – 250/1
- Dragons – 1000/1
- Zebre – 1000/1
