In this blog Brent Graham has a go at predicting the week 6 Super Rugby Pacific Week handicaps and he also tracks market moves, considers the weather and ultimately places a bet on each game.
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FORCE v DRUA
Posted 22 March 22h21
The Force opened -3.5 but there has been steady support and they are currently -5.5.
I fancy them for a big game and am leaning to the minus but it is the points and tries I prefer.
The points line is 63.5 and given I fancy plenty of points but no penalties taking the 8/10 over 8.5 tries appeals overthe 9/10 over 63.5 as even 9 onverted tries only gets to 63.
Both teams have played in some high scoring matches this season and although hit it doesn't look humid and conditions should be great for tries.
BET: 5 units over 8.5 tries at 8/10 at SPORTINGBET
WARATAHS V REDS
Posted 21 March 21h06
Money has come for the Brumbies who started -2.5 and are now -6.5 in places.
The points line is 55.5 and while conditions look to be ok there is some rain forecast for after the game so waiting till closer to kick off may be adviseable for points bets.
Looking at the team sheets I find myself agreeing with the money for the Brumbies.
BET: 3 units Brumbies -5.5 at 10/11 at WSB
BLUES v CRUSADERS
Posted 21 March 16h59
Thi shandicap opened Blues +0.5 but it has moved to -1.5 closer to the -2.5 I projected.
The points line is 56.5 and I am leaning unders but once again expect a lose match and will go for either team by 7 or less.
BET: Either Team by 7 or less including draw at 1.55/1 (net decimal at Betxchange)
The double of this bet in the Highlanders and Blues games comes in at 5.32/1
HIGHLANDERS V REDS
Posted 21 March 16h55
This handicap has shifted from an opening call of -2.5 Highlanders to -4.5. I set the cap at -3.5 so am not seeing alot of value.
The points line is 55.5.
I think this is going to be a tight game and will back either team to win by 7 or less.
BET: Either Team by 7 or less including draw at 1.48/1 (net decimal at Betxchange)
MOANA PASIFIKA v CHIEFS
Posted 20 March 23h33
This handicap opened -12.5 and went out to -19.5 at one point. With the Chiefs not picking all their front line players the money has started to come for the Drua who are +16.5 in places with soe +18.5 still available.
The points line is 67.5.
I am backing a muh improved Pasifika team to beat this handicap.
BET: 3 units Pasifka +18.5 at 9/10 at Betxchange
THE HANDICAP LIVE AT 09H00
Posted 20 March 06h05
Heads up: The Super Rugby portion of THE HANDICAP our live rugby betting show will stream at 09h00 Thursday morning - you can watch the show on You Tube and set a reminder here
Money continues to come for the Chiefs out to -18.5 from an opening -12.5 and there has also been support for the Brumbies now -6.5 from -4.5 away to the Waratahs.
Interestingly the Blues have found support and now shade favouritism at home to the Crusaders.
WEATHER LINKS FOR WEEK 6
Posted 19 March 07h31
Moana Pasifika v Chiefs, Friday 08h05, Navigation Homes Stadium, Pukekohe (Grass) - mild and clear
Highlanders v Reds, Saturday 05h35, Forsyth Barr Stadium (Turf) - under roof
Blues v Crusaders, Sarturday 08h05, Eden Park, Auckland (Grass, Hybrid) - possible rain
Waratahs v Brumbies, Saturday 10h35, Allainz Stadium, Sydney (Matrix "Ready to Play" Turf) - warm and clear, rain forecast after - monitor
Force v Drua, Sunday 08h05, HBF Park, Perth (Grass) - hot and clear
POINTS LINES FOR SRP WEEK 6
Posted 19 March 07h00
There has been very little handicap movement and below are the latest lines as well as points markets - weather links to follow, based on the spreads some hectic conditions expected in Auckland and Perth.
Update 07h30: I am not sure the lines I saw are correct on the Blues and Force games as there were no prices quoted and the weather looks decent
Moana Pasifika +15.5 v Chiefs, Points 66.5
Highlanders -3.5 v Reds, Points 56.5
Blues +0.5 v Crusaders, Points TBC
Waratahs +4.5 v Brumbies, Points 54.5
Force -3.5 v Drua, Points TBC
SRP WEEK 6 HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 17 March 08h36
The bookies are out with their lines and Betxhange handicaps in brackets next to mine
Moana Pasifika +10.5 (+14.5) v Chiefs
Highlanders -3.5 (-2.5) v Reds
Blues -2.5 (+0.5) v Crusaders
Waratahs -3.5 (+4.5) v Brumbies
Force -4.5 (-3.5) v Drua
Waratahs and Pasifika games the big differences but I think the bookies are closer to the mark than I am so won't get involved yet
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 5 WRAP
Posted March 16 13h18
It was a nice bounceback weekend for me in SRP with 4 of the 5 preview picks landing including Reds by 11-20 at 3/1 in the final match.
We also caught the early market move on the Highlanders who opened underdogs but started favourites although unfortunatly they ended up losing by 2 points.
Below the results wth winners handicaps at kick off
Highlanders 18 Hurricanes 20 (+1.5) - Highlanders butcher chances to win, great game to watch. Either team by 7 or less arrives at 14/10
Brumbies 38 Drua 20 (-12.5) - Brumbies over 36.5 arrives late
Crusaders 55 Force 33 (-27.5, however early -20 backers arrived with a missed conversion from the Force) Saders over 44.5 cruises in
Chiefs 32 Blues 31 (-11.5, Blues miss a conversion to win the game) Chiefs by 11-20 at 5/2 missed
Reds 35 Waratahs 15 (-9.5) - Reds by 11-20 at 3/1 hangs on
Here is the current log
Handicap Projections for Week 6
Note: Next week the Chiefs, Blues and Drua have a bye
Moana Pasifika +10.5 v Chiefs
Highlanders -3.5 v Reds
Blues -2.5 v Crusaders
Waratahs -3.5 v Brumbies
Force -4.5 v Drua
It looks to me like alot of competitive matches this week and will compare with the bookmakers on Monday
