South Africa's final match in Pool B of Rugby World Cup sees them take on Canada at the Kobe Misaki Stadium on Tuesday and not surprisngly the handicap set by the bookmakers is a big number.
South Africa v Canada, Tuesday 8th October, Kobe, KO 12:15 (South African time)
Weather Forecast – Kobe Misaki Stadium (note, this stadium also has a retractable roof)
Referee: Luke Pearce
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner, Andrew Brace
TMO: Rowan Kitt
South Africa
The Boks were 30 point favourites for Friday's clash with Italy and they obliged for minus handicap backers with a very comfortable 49-3 win to all but seal a quarter final place. At half time the Boks led 17-3 and their task was made easier when Italy were reduced to 14 men early in the second period. From there on it was 1 way traffic and the Boks ran in a total of 7 tries including 2 for Kolbe and the hookers, Mbonambi and replacement Marx, were also among the scorers.
In earlier results the Boks lost 32-13 to the All Blacks before putting Namibia away 57-3. South Africa now have 10 log points against their name and special attention will now be paid to Pool A to see who will provide the quarter final opposition with Ireland, host nation Japan and Scotland all in the mix at the time or writing.
In terms of the outright betting South Africa continue to trade in the region of 7/2 to 4/1 to win the tournament and around 16/10 to reach the final.
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Canada
Canada have lost both their matches so far and they have managed to score a total of just 7 points whilst conceding 111. They were 20 point underdogs for their opening match against Italy which they lost 48-7, conceding 7 tries and scoring 1 through Andrew Coe on 68 minutes.
Next time out Canada were faced with a mission impossible style task against the All Blacks and they were beaten 63-0 (half time 28-0). New Zealand scored 9 tries but were still 1 score short of covering a huge minus handicap that had been set by the bookmakers.
After this Canada will face Namibia in what will be their final action of the tournament, a game which both those nations will have targetted as a realistic opportunity for victory.
Line Ups
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Warrick Gelant, 13 Damian de Allende, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Sbu Nkosi, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Francois Louw, 7 Kwagga Smith, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 RG Snyman, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Thomas du Toit
Substitutes: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Frans Malherbe, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 21 Herschel Jantjies, 22 Handre Pollard, 23 Willie le Roux
Canada: 15 Andrew Coe, 14 Jeff Hassler, 13 Conor Trainor, 12 Ciaran Hearn, 11 DTH van der Merwe, 10 Peter Nelson, 9 Phil Mack, 8 Tyler Ardron (c), 7 Matt Heaton, 6 Lucas Rumball, 5 Kyle Baillie, 4 Evan Olmstead, 3 Jake Ilnicki, 2 Andrew Quattrin, 1 Hubert Buydens
Replacements: 16 Benoit Piffero, 17 Djustice Sears-Duru, 18 Matthew Tierney, 19 Josh Larsen, 20 Mike Sheppard, 21 Jamie Mackenzie, 22 Shane O’Leary, 23 Guiseppe du Toit
Head to Head
The teams have met just twice before. In RWC 1995 hosted in South Africa the Boks won a pool stage match 20-0.
In June 2000 South Africa ran out 58-18 winners in a tour match staged in East London.
Betting – Handicap
Early quotes were SA -57.5 and the handicap at the time of writing (08:18 on 7 September) varies between -51.5 and -53.5
Betting Angle
Some thoughts on the handicap:
The handicap has come in from -58.5 South Africa to the current line which ranges from -51.5 to -53.5. This is on the back of Bok team news which effectively has the B team running out.
Big handicaps have consistently failed to deliver for minus backers in this RWC and at first glance the +53.5 looks like the play. There are a few factors to take into account though.
Canada have made very few changes to the side that went down 63-0 to the All Blacks and to come up against another big nation in under a week will be tough especially when you think that the Bok team will be comparatively fresh. There can also be little doubt that Canada are eyeing their final match against Namibia on Sunday and given the short turnaround they may not be up for this one.
Most of this Bok team are likely starting their final match of the tournament and they will be ready to give it horns in an effort to stay on Rassie’s radar.
Based on the above if pushed on a handicap play I would go with Boks -51.5 at Sunbet however the stop start nature of the matches in this tournament and the poor hit rate of big minuses stops me short of firing a bet.
I will instead be looking to the player markets for an interest and I fancy Nkosi for a big game on the wing. He is 10/11 to get 2 tries or more and that’s my play in this game.
Bet: 2 units Nkosi 2 tries or more 10/11 at Sunbet
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