Japan take on Samoa in a Rugby World Cup Pool A clash in Toyota on Saturday and the host nation are favourites to remain on course for a place in the knockout rounds.
Japan v Samoa, Saturday 5th October, Toyota City, KO 12:30 (South African time)
Weather Forecast – City of Toyota Stadium
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand), Federico Anselmi (Argentina)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)
Japan
Japan are looking good with 2 wins from 2 matches and they caused a major shock last time out, defying the odds to beat Ireland 19-12. The hosts started that game as 20 point underdogs and trailed 12-3 after 20 minutes before reducing the deficit to 12-9 at half time. An inspired second half display including a decisive try from Kenki Fukuoka just before the hour saw Japan take the lead and they were not to be denied a famous victory.
Japan had started with a 30-10 bonus point win over Russia, a margin of victory that was around half of what the handicap had predicted. However their display against Ireland was from the top draw and they now have this game to consolidate their position in the top 2 before what looks likely to be a crucial match up with Scotland next week.
Japan are now trading around 66/1 to 80/1 to win the tournament, about a third of what their price was pre-tournament. They are odds on to reach the quarter finals and 6/4 to top this pool a scenario which could well led to a clash with South Africa in the first of the knockout rounds.
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Samoa
Samoa are still the mix to qualify from this pool but their hopes received a big dent against Scotland last time out as they crashed to a 34-0 defeat. They still have to face Ireland in their final pool game and defeat here would almost certainly end any hope of a prolonged stay in the tournament. Samoa had been given an 18 point start by the bookmakers for the clash with the Scots but they were 20-0 down at half time and 2 penalty tries in the second half summed up their day.
Samoa started their campaign with a 34-9 bonus point win over Russia. They started that game around 30 point favourites with the bookmakers and despite being reduced to 13 men at one stage in the first half after 2 yellow cards, Samoa hit back from a 6-5 half time deficit to run out comfortable winners.
Line Ups
Japan: 15 Ryohei Yamanaka, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 13 Timothy Lafaele, 12 Ryoto Nakamura, 11 Lomano Lemeki, 10 Yu Tamura, 9 Yutaka Nagare, 8 Kazuki Himeno, 7 Pieter Labuschagne (c), 6 Michael Leitch, 5 James Moore, 4 Wimpie van der Walt, 3 Jiwon Koo, 2 Atsushi Sakate, 1 Keita Inagaki
Replacements: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Isileli Nakajima, 18 Asaeli Ai Valu, 19 Uwe Helu, 20 Hendrik Tui, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Rikiya Matsuda, 23 Kenki Fukuoka
Samoa: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Ahsee Tuala, 13 Alapati Leiua, 12 Henry Taefu, 11 Ed Fidow, 10 Ulupano Seuteni, 9 Dwayne Polataivao, 8 Jack Lam (c), 7 TJ Ioane, 6 Chris Vui, 5 Kane Le’aupepe, 4 Piula Faasalele, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Seilala Lam, 1 Jordan Lay
Replacements: 16 Ray Niuia, 17 Paul Alo-Emile, 18 James Lay, 19 Senio Toleafoa, 20 Josh Tyrell, 21 Pele Cowley, 22 Tusi Pisi, 23 Kieron Fonotia
Head to Head
The teams have met 15 times with Japan winning 4 to Samoa's 11
The most recent head to head came in RWC 2015 and Japan won 26-5 although neither side progressed from the pool.
The only other RWC finals meeting came back in 1991 when Samoa won 43-9.
Early Betting - Handicap
Japan -20.5 points at 9/10
Samoa +20.5 points at 9/10
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Quotes are an average of what was on offer from a selection of bookmakers at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Japan v Samoa
Samoa have disappointed in the Tournament to date, but you do get a feeling there could be a big performance in them and we have some strong opinions in the Forum as well as on the YouTube Show that Samoa could be a cracking bet to beat the handicap.
Japan have of course earned the bookmakers respect with their win over the Irish last week, but their mind set will be very different for this game where a victory will do as they set themselves up for a make or break clash against the Scots. Samoa to lift their game and beat the handicap is our call and one of the bigger bets this weekend.
BET: 5 Units Samoa (+20.5) at 1.94/1 at Sunbet
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