Host nation Japan take on Ireland in a Rugby World Cup Pool A clash in Shizuoka on Saturday and victory for either side would be a major step towards sealing a quarter final place.
Japan v Ireland, Saturday 28th September, Shizuoka, KO 09:15 (South African time)
Weather Forecast – Shizuoka
Referee: Angus Gardner
Assistant Referees: Jerome Garces, Matthew Carley
TMO: Ben Skeen
Japan
The host nation won the opening match of the tournament 30-10 against Russia with Kotaro Matsushima scoring a hat tirck of tries and Lappies Labuschagne also crossed over to give Japan a bonus point.
Japan started as 40 point favourites to win that game but it was Russia who scored the opening try of the tournament and although Japan hit back they were just 12-7 up at half time. Russia looked to run out of steam as the match entered the final quarter and Japan finished the job off but they will have to improve with this game and a crunch clash with Scotland still to come.
Japan have never been beyond the RWC pool stage although in 2015 they won 3 of 4 pool matches. They can still be backed at 200/1 to win the tournament and 20/1 to top this pool and if you shop around you can get 5/2 for Japan to qualify for the quarter finals. Kotaro Matsushima is trading at around 16/1 to finish the tournament as top try scorer.
Ireland
Ireland putting a marker down with a 27-3 win over Scotland in their opening match of the tournament on Sunday. They started as 8 point favourites with the bookmakers and took control of the game early on with a try from James Ryan. Rory Best and Tadgh Furlong also crossed in the first half to help Ireland to a 19-3 half time lead. Rain arrived but a late Andrew Conway try secured the extra log point and a very satisfying result.
Victory here would all but seal a quarter final place and very possibly a clash with the Springboks. Ireland have exited previous tournaments at the quarter final stage on 6 occasions but following the win over Scotland the odds for Ireland to win this tournament were cut from 10/1 to 8/1. As far as topping Pool A is concerned odds of 1/40 suggest Ireland already have it in the bag, they are 12/10 to reach the semi finals and 11/4 to reach the final.
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Line Ups
Japan: 15 Ryohei Yamanaka, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 13 Timothy Lafaele, 12 Ryoto Nakamura, 11 William Tupou, 10 Yu Tamura, 9 Yutaka Nagare, 8 Amanaki Lelei Mafi, 7 Pieter Labuschagne (c), 6 Kazuki Himeno, 5 James Moore, 4 Luke Thompson, 3 Jiwon Koo, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki
Replacements: 16 Atsushi Sakate, 17 Isileli Nakajima, 18 Asaeli Ai Valu, 19 Wimpie van der Walt, 20 Michael Leitch, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Rikiya Matsuda, 23 Lomano Lava Lemeki
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Chris Farrell, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Jack Carty, 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 James Ryan, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best (c), 1 Cian Healy
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Andrew Porter, 19 Tadhg Beirne, 20 Rhys Ruddock, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Joey Carbery, 23 Jordan Larmour
Head to Head
Ireland have won all 9 of the previous meetings between these nations.
The most recent head to heads came in Japan in June 2017 and Ireland won both clashes, 50-22 in Shizuoka (half time 31-3) and 35-13 in Tokyo (half time 28-8)
In RWC 1995 Ireland won a pool stage match 50-28 in Bloemfontein
In RWC 1991 Ireland won a pool stage match 32-16 in Dublin
Betting - Handicap
Japan +20.5 points at 9/10
Ireland -20.5 points at 9/10
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Quotes are an average of what was on offer from a selection of bookmakers at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Listening to this weeks edition of THE HANDICAP our weekly rugby sports betting show the general consensus was that Japan will be targeting the Samoa game and that Ireland should pull clear and win this one easily. The handicap is shifting out and is 21 in places so I am going to grab some -19.5 before it goes.
Bet: 3 units Ireland -19.5 at 9/10 at World Sports Betting
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