The second of Sunday's Rugby World Cup matches promises to be the defining match in Pool D as Australia clash with Wales at the Tokyo Stadium.
Australia v Wales, Sunday 29th September, Tokyo, KO 09:45 (South African time)
Weather Forecast – Ajinomoto Tokyo Stadium
Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Assistant referees: Luke Pearce (England), Karl Dickson (England)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Australia
Australia's first action of the tournament came against Fiji at the Sapporo Dome on Saturday and they eventually came out on top 39-21. For an hour Fiji had threatened a surprise win but the Wallabies finished the stronger to come back from 14-12 down at half time and 21-12 in arrears early in the second half. Australia scored 4 of their 6 tries in the final 24 minutes of the match to secure a bonus point win and leave Fiji empty handed. Latu scored 2 of the Wallabies tries with Hooper, Hodge, Kerevi and Koroibete also crossing.
Reece Hodge was cited for a dangerous tackle against Fiji and has been handed a 3 match suspension, ruling him out of the rest of the Wallabies pool matches.
After the win over Fiji the Wallabies price to win the tournament was largely unchanged at around 14/1 and they are a shade of odds against to reach the semi finals.
Wales
Wales came through their opening match of the tournament with a 43-14 bonus point win over Georgia. The first of their 6 tries came as early as the second minute and by half time the lead had increased to 29-0. Jonathan Davies, Justin Tipuric, Josh Adams, Liam Williams, Tomos Williams and George North were the try scorers and although Georgia put up more resistance in the second half and were rewarded with 2 tries of their own, Wales just covered a pre-match handicap of around 27.5 points.
There was some bad new for Wales this week with Cory Hill returning home after failing to recover from injury and Bradley Davies has been called up as his replacement.
In the outright betting to win the tournament Wales had drifted to 12/1 before their opening game and their victory over Georgia saw most books trim their price by a point or 2 whilst the price for Wales to reach the semi finals is generally around 17/20.
Wales are trading 8/10 to top Pool D with Australia an even money chance.
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Line Ups
Australia: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 James O’Connor, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 David Pocock, 5 Rory Arnold, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Tolu Latu, 1 Scott Sio
Replacements: 16 Jordan Uelese, 17 James Slipper, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 Adam Coleman, 20 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 21 Nic White, 22 Matt Toomua, 23 Kurtley Beale
Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Josh Navidi, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Wyn Jones
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Aaron Shingler, 20 Ross Moriarty, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Rhys Patchell, 23 Owen Watkin
Head to Head
Overall the teams have met 42 times with Australia winning 30, Wales 11 and there has been 1 tie.
The teams have met 6 times in the RWC with the Wallabies winning 5 to Wales 1.
In RWC 2015 Australia won a pool stage match at Twickenham 15-6 although both nations went on to qualify for the knockout rounds.
The most recent meeting came in the end of year internationals in 2018 and Wales edged a tight encounter 9-6 in Cardiff.
That win in 2018 broke a decade long 13 match winning streak the Wallabies had enjoyed over Wales
Betting – Match Result
Australia 12/10
Draw 22/1
Wales 8/10
Quotes are an average of what was on offer from a selection of bookmakers at the time of writing and are subject to change.
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Betting Angle
This will be a cracking game between 2 sides who know each other well. Australia have performed well on occasions such as the home win over the All Blacks and the 2nd half against Fiji but I am expecting Wales to have the edge up front and to grind the Wallabies down for a win.
Bet: 4 units Wales win at 8/10 at Betxchange or WSB
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