New Zealand return to Rugby World Cup action on Wednesday for a Pool B clash with Canada in Oita and everything points to a one sided contest.
New Zealand v Canada, Wednesday 2nd October, Oita, KO 12:15 (South African time)
Weather Forecast – Oita
Referee: Romain Poite
Assistant Referees: Pascal Gauzere, Alexandre Ruiz
TMO: Marius Jonker
New Zealand
The All Blacks began their quest for a third consecutive RWC title and a fourth in total with a 23-13 victory over South African back on 21st September. That was Day 2 of the tournament and New Zealand made the most of some decisive errors from the Springboks to lead 17-8 at half time and they held on in the second half to cover a minus handicap of around 6.5 points. George Bridge and Scott Barrett scored the tries and in the outright betting the All Blacks shortened in to around 23/20 to win the tournament.
The Boks game always looked likely to decide this pool and with Canada, Namibia and then Italy providing the opposition in the remaining pool matches, the All Blacks record of never having lost an RWC pool game looks set to stay in tact.
Canada
Canada's opening match of the tournament came on Thursday of last week when they lost 48-7 to Italy. They were given more than 20 points start by the bookmakers on the handicap but that was never enough as they managed just the 1 try through Andrew Coe on 68 minutes whilst Italy crossed 7 times.
After this Canada will face the Boks before their final pool match offers up a realistic prospect of victory against Namibia.
Canada finished bottom of their pool in RWC 2015, losing all 4 of their matches. They did pick up a couple of bonus points along the way but against the stronger nations they were no match for Ireland (lost 50-7) and France (41-18).
Line Ups
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Jordie Barrett, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Atu Moli
Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Ofa Tuungafasi, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Ardie Savea, 21 Brad Weber, 22 Ryan Crotty, 23 Ben Smith
Canada: 15 Patrick Parfrey, 14 Jeff Hassler, 13 Conor Trainor, 12 Ciaran Hearn, 11 DTH van der Merwe, 10 Peter Nelson, 9 Gordon McRorie, 8 Tyler Ardron (c), 7 Lucas Rumball, 6 Matt Heaton, 5 Conor Keys, 4 Evan Olmstead, 3 Cole Keith, 2 Eric Howard, 1 Djustice Sears-Duru
Replacements: 16 Andrew Quattrin, 17 Hubert Buydens, 18 Jake Ilnicki, 19 Mike Sheppard, 20 Josh Larsen, 21 Phil Mack, 22 Taylor Paris, 23 Andrew Coe
Head to Head
New Zealand have won all 5 previous meetings with Canada.
The last time these sides met came in RWC 2011 when the All Blacks, who were the host nation, won 79-15.
Betting – Handicap
New Zealand -65.5 points at 9/10
Canada +65.5 points at 9/10
Quotes are an average of what was on offer from a selection of bookmakers at the time of writing and are subject to change.
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Betting Angle
The money has come for New Zealand at the -65.5 levels and at the time of writing GGGaming were holding firm but had the -65.5 at 8/10 while the line was out to as high as 68.5 elsewhere.
It is hard to see Canada contributing much in the way of points and the 27/20 they don’t score a try at WSB is actually quite tempting and even more so because humidity levels are forecasted to be in the high 80’s.
It is that expected humidity that has me weary of jumping onto the minus train and I think the 9/2 that New Zealand win by 61-70 points inclusive offers really good value.
Bet: Alternative Winning Margin – New Zealand by 61-70 at 9/2 at Betxchange
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