Monday's action in the Rugby World Cup comes from Pool A where Scotland face what looks like a must win clash with Samoa at the Misaki Stadium in Kobe City
Scotland v Samoa, Monday 30th September, Kobe, KO 12:15 (South African time)
Weather Forecast – Kobe Misaki Stadium
Referee: Pascal Gaüzère (France)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), Federico Anselmi (Argentina)
TMO: Graham Hughes (England)
Scotland
Scotland lost their opening match of the tournament 27-3 to Ireland. The margin of defeat was greater than the pre-match handicap which had seen the Scots given an 8 point start by the bookmakers. Ireland scored an early try and stretched the lead to 19-3 at the break and in wet conditions in the second half any fightback from the Scots failed to materialize.
There was more bad news for Scotland after the Ireland game with injured duo Ali Price and Hamish Watson ruled out of the remainder of the tournament. Henry Pyrgos has been called up as the replacement for Price, Magnus Bradbury replaces Watson.
Scotland are now tasked with a win here and also against Russia before they head into their final pool match against host nation Japan which could be a virtual eliminator. Going back 4 years a pool stage record of 3 wins and 1 defeat with a couple of bonus points along the way helped Scotland finish second in their pool. They had Japan and Samoa for company in those matches, beating Japan 45-10 and edging out Samoa 36-33.
Despite their forgettable start Scotland are still trading at around 1/3 to make it out of this pool.
Samoa
Samoa started their campaign with a 34-9 bonus point win over Russia. They started that game around 30 point favourites with the bookmakers and despite being reduced to 13 men at one stage in the first half after 2 yellow cards, Samoa hit back from a 6-5 half time deficit to run out comfortable winners. Samoa ran in a total of 6 tries through Leiua (2), Fidow (2), Amosa and Lee-Lo although there was bad news for Lee-Lo who has subsequently picked up a 3 match ban.
This is the first of 3 huge games for Samoa with Japan and Ireland to follow and a victory would raise hopes of a place in the knockout rounds for the first time since 1995. If you shop around odds of 25/1 are available on Samoa to finish in the top 2 of this pool.
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Line Ups
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Sam Johnson, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw, 8 Blade Thomson, 7 Jamie Ritchie, 6 Magnus Bradbury, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Willem Nel, 2 Stuart McInally (c), 1 Allan Dell
Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Gordon Reid, 18 Zander Fagerson, 19 Scott Cummings, 20 Ryan Wilson, 21 George Horne, 22 Adam Hastings, 23 Duncan Taylor
Samoa: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Belgium Tuatagaloa, 13 Alapati Leiua, 12 Henry Taefu, 11 Ed Fidow, 10 Tusi Pisi, 9 Melani Matavao, 8 Jack Lam (c), 7 TJ Ioane, 6 Chris Vui, 5 Kane Le’aupepe, 4 Teofilo Paulo, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Ray Niuia, 1 Logovii Mulipola
Replacements: 16 Seilala Lam, 17 Paul Alo-Emile, 18 Jordan Lay, 19 Piula Faasalele, 20 Josh Tyrell, 21 Pele Cowley, 22 Ulupano Seuteni, 23 Kieron Fonotia
Head to Head
Scotland have won 9 of 11 previous meetings with Samoa winning 1 and there has been 1 draw.
The most recent meeting came in Edinburgh in 2017 and Scotland had to dig deep to come out on top 44-38
In Scotland's 36-33 win in RWC 2015 Samoa scored 4 of the 7 tires in the match and led 26-23 at half time.
Samoa's only win (27-17) over the Scots came in 2013 in a quadrangular tournament staged in South Africa
Betting - Handicap
Scotland -18.5 points at 9/10
Samoa +18.5 points at 9/10
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Quotes are an average of what was on offer from a selection of bookmakers at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Japan’s win over Ireland has thrown this pool wide open and while the Scots always knew they would need to beat Japan to progress it is now possible they could win the match and still not make the last 8. Simply put they need to get moving to improve their points difference and collect bonus points and I think they will do the business against a Samoa side that never impressed me in their opener.
Bet: 3 units Scotland -16.5 at 17/20 at Sunbet
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